Govt keeps ears on ground to guard against El Nino risks

Martin Kadzere

THE Government is monitoring rising sea surface temperatures amid warnings of a potential “Super El Niño” later this year — a climate phenomenon that may pose significant risks to agriculture.

Zimbabwe suffered extensive crop failure in the 2023/24 season due to the El Niño-induced drought, causing serious food security challenges, which saw about 7.6 million people needing food assistance.

A Super El Niño is an exceptionally strong version of the standard El Niño climate pattern, hence the Government’s proactive stance to ensure adequate safeguards in the event that the phenomenon actualises.

Agriculture is the backbone of Zimbabwe’s economy, contributing 15-20 percent to the gross domestic product and providing livelihoods for over 60-70 percent of the population, particularly in rural areas.

It drives industrial growth by providing roughly 60 percent of raw materials, generates around 30-45 percent of export earnings and ensures national food security.

The 2023/24 El Niño-induced drought severely impacted Zimbabwe’s economy, causing a projected GDP growth decline to 2 percent from 6 percent in 2023.

Chief director in the Ministry of Environment, Climate and Wildlife, Mr Washington Zhakata, said while the 2025/26 rainfall season is only coming to an end, atmospheric shifts linked to El Niño are expected to become more pronounced as the country enters winter.

Mr Zhakata cautioned that while there could be a risk of drought associated with El Nino induced conditions, it is currently “too early” to provide definitive policy advice.

“We have to keep tracking the conditions,” Mr Zhakata said. “It is premature to give policy advice since the end of the season will be the basis for monitoring what is brewing in the oceans.”

El Niño is characterised by significantly warmer-than-average temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific. For Southern Africa, this typically translates to prolonged dry spells and heatwaves.

However, Mr Zhakata noted that the phenomenon does not guarantee total failure.

“Even in El Niño years, there might still be a chance of rains that make life sustainable,” he added.

Global climate models predict a transition to an El Niño state between June and August 2026. If this intensifies into a “Super Niño” event, 2027 could see record-breaking global temperatures and extreme weather, ranging from intense floods to severe droughts.

Mr Tom Di Liberto, a climate scientist with Climate Central, a nonprofit news organisation that analyses and reports on climate science warned that while the phenomenon is not yet a “slam dunk,” the necessary ingredients are in place.

For Zimbabwe, the alarm is particularly loud given the memory of the 2023/24 season, where a similar phenomenon decimated national output, leading to an 80 percent drop in crop production in many districts.

With a rapid transition expected by June 2026, agricultural analysts are urging the Government to accelerate the expansion of irrigation infrastructure to avoid a potential food security crisis. The 2023/24 season saw the national harvest of maize, the main staple plummet to roughly 635 000 tonnes — a sharp decline from the 2,3 million tonnes produced the year prior.

“We cannot afford to be reactive again,” said Dr Takesure Sangano, a local agricultural policy analyst. In 2024, nearly 80 percent of our crops were rain-fed, leaving them defenceless against the heat. Irrigation is no longer a luxury; it is a national security priority.”

The Government has already signalled a pivot towards water-managed agriculture.

The 2026 National Budget allocated ZiG 823,9 million, targeting an additional 25 000 hectares through private-sector partnerships.

However, experts argue the pace must quicken.

They are calling for interventions such as repairing aging pumps and canals to prevent water loss, equipping smallholder farmers with solar-powered kits to bypass electricity shortage and expanding dam capacities and desilting existing reservoirs to maximise storage from erratic rains.

During the 2024 drought, irrigation was the primary lifeline, contributing the bulk of the 327 000 tonnes of maize salvaged.

“While it is too early to press a panic button, the early forecast should be taken seriously,” agronomist Ms Ngoni Pfumayi said.

“We are better off being proactive than reactive.”