High African growth rates distort real image

Dianna Games
HOW many times have you heard that many of the fastest-growing economies in the world at the moment are in Africa? At almost every African conference these days, this is trotted out as a way of highlighting the fact that Africa is the “go-to” place for investment. A new list of the fastest-growing economies in Africa — and by extension, the world — put out last week by the African Development Bank in its Africa Economic Outlook 2013 includes some of the poorest countries in Africa, some of which are developing off an extremely low base. At the top are Libya (11,6 percent), Sierra Leone (9,6 percent), Chad (9,5 percent), Cote d’Ivoire (9,3 percent), Republic of Congo (8,8 percent) and Ghana (8,4 percent).

Growth rates are used by fund managers, investment bankers and others to portray Africa as the new frontier for growth, in essence to talk up their book.

But high levels of poverty are pervasive across these same economies. Not only is underdevelopment a potential security threat, not fully understanding the nature and spread of that growth presents investment risks.

Take development indicators of these economies. Sierra Leone, last year, sat at 177 out of 187 countries ranked by the United Nations on its Human Development Index on education, life expectancy, health, per-capita incomes, poverty and inequality, among other things. Per capita gross national income was US$881 last year.

Its high growth rates are based on a few large deals in the resources sector — mostly in iron ore and diamonds — yet about 70 percent of people live below the poverty line. Chad ranks at 184 on the list, with a life expectancy of 49,9 years, mean years of schooling an extremely low 1,5 and national income per capita at US$1 258. Cote d’Ivoire, finally stabilising after a long-running civil conflict, is ranked at 168.

Republic of Congo is ranked at 142, while Mozambique, at number seven on the African Development Bank list and a top destination for investment, sits at 185. Its per-capita GNI is just US$906.

In Chad, the government reneged on a deal with the World Bank to spend a portion of oil profits on alleviating poverty in return for bank funding of a pipeline to take oil from the landlocked country to the sea. Chad remains one of the poorest countries in the world.

Chad, Congo and Cote d’Ivoire are in the bottom 10 of the World Bank’s ease-of-doing-business rankings.
Angola, eighth on the African Development Bank list, saw its growth rate plummet to 2,4 percent in 2009 after the oil price crashed in 2008, from more than 20 percent in 2007, highlighting the undiversified nature of its economy.

Despite the sorry state of the human development statistics in most of these rapidly growing countries, there is no shortage of investment in resources.