adminfortnight in Bonn, Germany.
The first and most significant factor is that of escalating atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2), which broke the 400 parts per million (ppm) barrier earlier in
May, 12 percent above the safe limit of 350ppm and significantly ahead of 270ppm, the pre-industrial level. This is a measure of the amount of CO2 in the air.
Then, there is the scale of the socio-economic costs arising from environmental or climate- related disasters worldwide.
The level of loss and damage from natural catastrophes hit US$170 billion globally in 2012, according to data released last week by the US-based Worldwatch Institute.
At least 9 600 people died from 905 disasters that occurred worldwide last year, including extreme events such as storms, floods, heat waves, cold waves, wildfires and droughts.
Ironically, 69 percent of overall loss and damage occurred in the US, which has, over the years, systematically caused a drag in international efforts to deeply cut greenhouse gas emissions like CO2, the major cause of climate change and global warming.
Europe recorded 13 percent of losses and the Asia-Pacific 17 percent. The proportion of natural disasters in Africa accounted for 11 percent of the global figure, marginally above the long-term average of 9 percent.
A severe flood ravaged Nigeria from July to October, one of the five deadliest events in 2012, causing overall losses of US$500 million and killing 360 people
Some 21 000 loss events have occurred worldwide since 1980 and weather-linked catastrophes have increased by as much as 360 percent.
Opportunity for enhanced action
However, despite its disappointingly weak ambitions, the US in 2012 had to deal with the devastating hurricane Sandy, severe storms and tornadoes, which accounted for US$100 billion of the overall losses in 2012, the second highest overall and insured losses in 33 years.
The most expensive year in the United States was 2005, when Hurricane Katrina hit the coast of Mississippi and the city of New Orleans.
Already this year, a terrible wind-storm killed 24 people and destroyed billions worth of property when it hit a suburb in Oklahoma last month
Now, negotiators meeting in Bonn, for the second time in two months, know very well the job that lies in their path.
This is particularly important for the US negotiators and those in the developed world who have kept ambitions below minimum for years, but have in the past year tasted the bitter impacts of climate change more than anyone else.
Although developed countries remain better resourced to handle climate impacts, the Bonn talks present those nations an opportunity to design and agree new ways of raising ambitions before 2020 and after, actions that in the long-term will reduce exposure for vulnerable African countries.
As CO2 concentrations worsened in the atmosphere, at Bonn, developing countries are not expecting anything less than stronger emission reduction commitments from the industrialised states, which are historically responsible for all the pollution and climatic change seen in the world today.
“The gap between current pollution reduction pledges of rich countries and what science and historical responsibility requires is large – for the Bonn talks to be called a success we will have to see those targets go up,” said Meena Raman, negotiation expert with the Third World Network.
“The overwhelming priority and focus of work must be on scaling up pre-2020 actions, without them the 2020 ‘deal’ will be too little too late.
“If the 2020 deal is made up of a every country doing as it pleases with no allocation of fair-shares of effort, as proposed by the US, then it won’t be worth the paper it’s written on,” Raman said.
Some independent studies have suggested “it is possible that developed countries are ‘pledging’ effectively no climate action between now and 2020, if all the potential accounting loopholes are allowed”.
This is highlighted by Japan’s backtracking and refusal to announce its 2020 target.
Pledges from developed countries until 2020 amount to just 15 percent of the pre-1990 levels, the benchmark year for emission reductions.
Yet, Africa is looking for cuts of up to 40 percent by 2020 and over 90 percent by 2050.
Looking for a new deal
At Bonn, negotiations are expected to still centre on the controversial development of an accord under the existing UN Climate Convention, “with legal force” to be agreed by 2015, but to be implemented only from 2020.
Talks will also look at raising ambition or the level of action and commitments under the current global agreement to tackle climate change between now and 2020.
Action on scaling up the use of more efficient, carbon-reducing energy options within the next eight years and dumping dirty fuels will be central at Bonn.
Talks will also continue on the shape of the post-2020 agreement, which is supposed to be concluded in 2015.
These negotiations will be heavily influenced by the success of the talks on pre-2020 action, both as more ambitious action now will make action later easier, and because many countries have highlighted pre-2020 action as a priority.
The Bonn talks precede the main annual UN climate negotiations, this year to be hosted by Poland in November.
God is faithful.
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