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Business Reporter
Zimbabwe is projected to generate about US$3,2 billion in annual export revenue by 2030 as local producers expand midstream chemical refining infrastructure to nearly triple domestic lithium sulphate output, according to the Lithium Association of Zimbabwe.
Lithium sulphate output is expected to climb from 130 000 tonnes in 2026 to 169 000 tonnes next year and is then projected to jump to 264 000 tonnes in 2028 and ultimately peak at 344 000 tonnes by 2030.
The processing comes as primary extraction figures adapt to Government mandate changes, with raw spodumene ore production expected to drop from 963 049 tonnes in 2026 to 467 000 tonnes in 2027.
Similarly, early-stage spodumene concentrate output is forecast to decrease from 1,22 million tonnes in 2026 to 636 090 tonnes in 2027 as operations prioritise internal chemical processing over raw exports.
Driven by an increasing number of companies processing high-value lithium chemicals, export revenues are forecasted to rise from US$350 million this year to US$1,5 billion next year.
Over the following three years, this rapid expansion is expected to bring in US$2,6 billion in 2028 and US$2,9 billion in 2029, before peaking at US$3,15 billion in 2030.
The aggressive scaling builds directly on a milestone achieved in early 2026, when Zimbabwe officially entered the midstream market by dispatching Africa’s first-ever export consignment of lithium sulphate from the newly commissioned US$400 million Prospect Lithium facility in Goromonzi.
The projected surge in lithium sulphate production follows a series of policy interventions by the Government aimed at eliminating the export of the raw mineral.
The legislative push began in late 2022 when Zimbabwe banned the export of raw, unprocessed lithium ore to curb rampant smuggling and revenue leakages.
While mining houses were initially given until January 2027 to migrate to domestic value-addition, the Government in late February 2026 imposed an immediate, indefinite ban on all lithium concentrates, a directive that also froze shipments already in transit.
Following a series of intense appeal presentations from the affected mining companies, the Government laid out a stringent set of conditions to lift the export ban.
To resume shipping concentrates, mining houses were directed to provide binding written commitments to construct local beneficiation facilities capable of separating all economic minerals before export.
Furthermore, producers were ordered to submit definitive timelines to establish lithium sulphate plants, built to standards approved by the Minister of Mines and Mining Development, no later than January 1, 2027.
On the fiscal front, the Government demanded a mandatory declaration to ensure total tax compliance on all secondary minerals contained within export consignments, alongside the full acquittal of all export proceeds.
Additionally, mining companies were directed to issue a written pledge to publish audited annual financial statements, commencing with the period ending December 31, 2025, and to agree to a 10 percent beneficiation tax to be levied on all subsequent lithium concentrate exports.
To support the broader mining ecosystem and improve worker welfare, the new framework mandates that companies provide written commitments to fund two internationally accredited laboratories and local assay plants.
Further, the framework requires companies to commit to enforcing rigorous workplace safety and health standards, while simultaneously providing decent housing for their workers.
Analysts argue Zimbabwe must aggressively move further up the value chain by offering competitive incentives to investors, a move that aligns directly with the country’s broader industrialisation agenda.
“There is no reason why we cannot attract the global capital required to establish advanced facilities like lithium battery manufacturing plants, allowing the country to extract maximum value from its natural resources,” said Mr Enoch Musara, a local development economist.
“Lithium should be positioned at the very core of Zimbabwe’s industrialisation strategy.
“By manufacturing finished products locally, we will not only generate thousands of high-quality jobs for our population, but also facilitate critical technology transfer that will yield long-term benefits for the wider economy.”
Analyst, Mr Conrad Gumbi, applauded the Government’s “tough stance” on lithium producers, noting that local value-addition serves as an excellent buffer to insulate the economy during global commodity slumps.
He argued that this aggressive approach in the lithium sector should be extended to other critical commodities.
“The Government’s uncompromising stance on domestic beneficiation is exactly the shield Zimbabwe needs against global market volatility,” he said.
“When you export raw or semi-processed commodities, you are entirely at the mercy of global price downswings.
“By forcing producers to build midstream processing infrastructure locally, we create an economic buffer that protects national revenue during inevitable commodity slumps.
“This same regulatory assertiveness must now be duplicated across other critical sectors.”
Lithium is the indispensable engine of the clean energy transition, serving as the core component in lithium-ion batteries for electric vehicles (EVs) and renewable energy grid storage.
Thanks to its status as the lightest solid element with an unmatched energy-to-weight ratio, it offers the highest efficiency for storing and discharging power, making it a critical strategic asset for global economic and national security.
