Load shedding in SA all but certain

On Wednesday, Eskom CEO Andre de Ruyter made (or, rather, repeated) a rather frank admission: “We need to face up to the facts,” he said.

“To expect the Eskom coal-fired fleet to return to its former glory of 80 percent or 85 percent EAF [energy availability factor] is going to be very difficult to achieve and will cost an extraordinary amount of money, time and effort which will probably be better directed at unlocking the grid as quickly as possible to new generation technologies that we can then make available to address the shortfall in generation capacity on a comprehensive basis.”

The current shortfall was quantified by De Ruyter as between 4 000 megawatts (MW) and 6 000MW to “address” the risk of load shedding.

This is the stark reality facing the country between now and 2026.

The utility’s own medium-term system adequacy outlook published in October says plainly that “it can be observed that, at current EAF levels of 63 percent calendar year to date, capacity of between 2 000MW and 3 000MW is required between 2022 and 2024, while the last two years require capacity of between six and seven Medupi [Power Station] units”.

In 2025 and 2026, the shortfall is 4 000MW and 5 000MW, respectively. The reality is that Eskom’s coal fleet is creaking and the shortfall is our reality. – Moneyweb.