Online Reporter
The Herald, 10 October 1997
THE powerful weather phenomenon known as El Nino could this year be the mother of all El Ninos, the World Bank warned on Wednesday and urged countries to prepare for the Worst.
“This looks like it’s going to be the El Nino of the century. It may well be the most major El Nino of the last 150 years,” Robert Watson, director of the bank’s environment department, said during a conference in Washington.
The last major El Nino, in 1982-83, was estimated to have caused more than US$13 billion in damages and killed 2000 people worldwide.
Experts believe the current El Nino phenomenon will be just as severe, bringing heavy rainfall and flooding to parts of the world and extreme drought to other regions.
El Nino, caused by a warming in southern Pacific waters, occurs with varying strength every two to seven years, lasts up to 18 months and affects weather patterns all across the world, causing droughts and flooding in far-flung regions.
Named after the Christ child because it tends to peak at Christmas, the current El Nino is already being blamed for widespread economic turmoil. The World Bank, the Inter-American Development Bank and other multilaterals and aid agencies have responded to the crises with offers of emergency aid.
Peru announced earlier this week that the World Bank and IADB would lend the country US$250 million to gear up for the harsh climate changes. Watson said El Nino could undermine the gross domestic product growth of countries that are not prepared for crop losses and flooding.
“It certainly has the potential to knock GDP growth,” Watson said. “Whether it will or will not have such an adverse effect on GDP will depend on whether or not there is a severe loss of rainfall, and, secondly, to what degree they (government officials) plan ahead, he warned.
Lessons for today:
- The 1997 warning from the World Bank about a potentially catastrophic El Niño event offers enduring lessons that are still relevant today, especially as El Niño continues to affect Zimbabwe and other regions with increasing frequency and intensity.
- Experts had foreseen the severity of El Niño and urged early preparation. Governments and communities must always act on early warnings from meteorological agencies to minimise damage. This includes preparing for droughts, floods, and crop failures.
- El Niño can disrupt agriculture, reduce GDP, and cause widespread economic turmoil. Zimbabwe, being heavily reliant on rain-fed agriculture, must diversify its economy and invest in climate-resilient farming to cushion against such shocks.
