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Whether you are a casual viewer of golf, a diehard fan, a DFS guy or just an outright bettor, there is absolutely no better week than this one—Masters week.
Everybody’s in a pool, everybody’s got a sleeper, everybody’s going to get rich off that one prop bet they love. It’s just a great time to be alive.
Making this week that much better is the fact our panel is coming in HOT, as we’ve now picked back-to-back winners in this column.
Stephen Hennessey, Pay Mayo and our anonymous caddie all hit on Akshay Bhatia at the Valero Texas Open, and Andy Lack correctly predicted Stephan Jaeger’s win a week before in Houston.
We’re about to bowl an outright turkey.
Our betting panel is comprised of a caddie reporting anonymously from the grounds of Memorial Park, Pat Mayo of Underdog/Mayo Media Network, Brandon Gdula of numberFire/FanDuel, Andy Lack of RunPureSports.com, your two authors and Keith Stewart, the CEO of Read The Line. Stewart, our newest member of the panel, is our new betting content partner as well.
His insights will help our betting content immensely, though Mayo remains on a bit of a heater—hitting Knapp (Mexico) and Bhatia (Valero) outright and going on a 11-3-0 run on matchup bets thus far.
Masters picks 2024: Our Experts’ Outright Predictions
Joaquin Niemann (28-1, FanDuel) — The guy is just a striper. He hits a nice comfy draw, just finished top 10 at LIV Miami. The way he drives it, plus everything else about his game, should fit perfectly at Augusta National this week.
Pat Mayo, Underdog/Fantasy National, Mayo Media Network analyst: Hideki Matsuyama (20-1, FanDuel)
Only one player currently rivals Scheffler’s form entering Augusta, and that’s the former champ, Matsuyama.
Whatever issue he had with his driver in 2023 has been solved and, just like that, he found himself back in the winner’s circle for the first time in two years.
He’ll always be an inconsistent putter, much like a lot of great players, but routinely gaining on the field off-the-tee, while mixing in upside spike weeks with that putter is a lethal combo with how good his irons have been and his all-world short game.
He played C- golf a year ago and still managed to finish no worse than T-32 in any Major. With a win and three straight top 10s entering the year’s first major.
Brandon Gdula, FanDuel/numberFire managing editor: Xander Schauffele (14-1, FanDuel)
Schauffele has had mostly consistent success at Augusta National, and he keeps getting himself in contention.
Via data golf, over the last six months, Schauffele is the second-best golfer in the field in adjusted strokes-gained – behind just Scottie Scheffler.
In that span, only he and Scheffler are also both top-10 in strokes-gained/off the tee, strokes-gained/approach, and strokes-gained/around-the-green.
Keith Stewart, Read The Line: Jon Rahm (12-1, BetMGM)
The defending Masters champion is the scoring average leader of his peers at Augusta National.
Jon Rahm is also the career strokes gained leader.
In seven starts at Augusta, Rahm has five top 10s and a win.
Many will quote the “only three have ever successfully defended…” and they are correct. I see Jon differently. He feels left out of the best player conversation.
That slight will fuel him enough to take the jacket home again and give Spain a seventh Masters win.
Stephen Hennessey, Golf Digest dep. managing editor: Hideki Matsuyama (20-1, FanDuel)
If there’s someone other than Scottie Scheffler who can win, it’s Hideki.
Look at the stats from his past two starts: He gained over 14 strokes/tee to green at The Players and 11 strokes/tee to green last week at the Valero.
Plus, he won a few starts previously at Riviera—the biggest comp course to Augusta.
Hideki could easily join all the other great two-time Masters champions, and the odds aren’t crazy.
Christopher Powers, Golf Digest staff writer: Xander Schauffele (14-1, DraftKings)
Full disclosure – we are betting this week based on vibes alone.
And the vibes / my gut is telling me it’s Xander’s time. Stop me if you’ve heard that a million times before, but for real, it’s time.
Of the elites not named Scottie Scheffler, he might be the only one truly trending right now, and his history at Augusta National is as good as anybody’s.
In six career starts, he’s made all but one cut and finished T-17 or better four times.
Don’t listen to all the naysayers.
We all said Phil Mickelson, Sergio Garcia, Dustin Johnson and, yes, even Scottie Scheffler, couldn’t win the big one either.
Narrative-changing victory incoming.
Andy Lack, Run Pure Sports and Inside Golf podcast: Rory McIlroy (11-1, DraftKings)
I’ve been down this road before, and it never ends well, but there are a few signs for optimism from the Rory McIlroy camp this year.
The four-time major winner is coming off his best iron week in four years at the Valero Texas Open, gaining over 7.5 strokes on approach to the field.
I have long held the belief that course management and shot selection has been what’s really holding him back, and it appears that watching Scottie Scheffler’s run of dominance has rubbed off on McIlroy.
The Northern Irishman keeps coming back to the word “discipline: in all of his recent interviews, which may be the key to unlocking his true potential.
The “Discipline Era” is off to an encouraging start, as McIlroy made the least amount of bogeys he had in an event all season last week in San Antonio. I’m excited to see what this approach can do for him at Augusta National.
Masters picks 2024: Sleepers/Dark Horses Who Could Win
Caddie: Sungjae Im (125-1, Caesars Sportsbook) — Im is starting it hit it much better and this number is just absolutely ridiculous for a guy with two top 10s and a top 20 in four starts at Augusta National.
Mayo: Sahith Theegala (55-1, FanDuel) — Top 10s in three of his past five, a lone missed cut on the season, and a silver medal at one of the biggest crossover courses to kick off 2024 at Kapalua.
Plus, he’s got the magic beans gene; the most unquantifiable skill for Augusta.
You know it when you see it. Spieth has it.
Cam Smith has it. Bubba has it. Scheffler has it.
The more difficult the shot, somehow, the better he becomes.
We witnessed it in his debut a year ago when he finished top 10. He’s a better player now.
Gdula: Tommy Fleetwood (50-1, FanDuel)
A 50-1 number on Fleetwood is really interesting.
He’s fresh off a T-7 at the Valero Texas Open, and while his form is up-and-down at Augusta, he’s played here seven times and made six cuts with three top 20s.
Stewart: Shane Lowry (55-1, FanDuel)
Shane Lowry finished third in the 2022 Masters.
In the three starts leading up to that major, Lowry collected three top-20 results. In the last month, Shane secured three more top-20 finishes heading into this trip down Magnolia Lane.
Lowry has four straight top 25s at Augusta National and is gaining an average of six strokes (total) in his last five starts.
Should we get a little wind and weather, I love his chances even more.— golfdigest
Bongani Ndlovu