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Business Reporter
LOCAL millers have cautioned against opening borders for mealie-meal and flour imports, saying that allowing such commodities into the country duty-free could reverse the significant local production gains the domestic milling industry has achieved in recent years.
This follows indications from the Minister of Finance, Economic Development and Investment Promotion, Professor Mthuli Ncube, that the Government plans to allow duty-free imports of selected food items to mitigate potential shortages ahead of an expected El Niño drought this year.
Grain Millers Association of Zimbabwe (GMAZ) chairman Dr Tafadzwa Musarara argued that allowing finished flour and maize meal imports would effectively “substitute local production.”
This, he noted, directly contradicts Government policies focused on industrialisation, value addition and import substitution.
Dr Musarara observed that local millers have invested as much as US$300 million over the past seven years, boosting processing capacity to levels more than capable of meeting national demand.
While acknowledging that the primary challenge is grain availability due to the impending drought, he assured that local millers have secured lines of credit and these facilities would allow them to import raw grain for local processing, rather than bringing in finished flour and mealie-meal.
“Within the value chain, yields are expected to be affected by the drought, but let us also bear in mind that there is life after drought,” said Mr Musarara.
“There is no way foreign millers will come and finance local farmers after the drought, so we must ensure that we keep local processing facilities fully functional.
“Our position is that the opening of the borders must complement, not substitute, local production. As millers, we have previously demonstrated our capacity during times of drought to import grain for local processing, so mealie-meal and flour imports should not be allowed, so that we can keep our factories running and our workers employed.”
Mr Musara further allayed fears that maintaining the ban on maize meal and flour imports could foster “monopolistic” behaviour, potentially leading to unjustified price hikes for these essential commodities.
He stressed that millers have a proven track record of securing the country’s food supply.
Mr Musarara noted that during previous severe droughts, the industry demonstrated its capacity after importing and processing over two million tonnes of grain locally.
Furthermore, he emphasised that millers successfully maintained price stability during those challenging periods, calming concerns that restricting imports would trigger inflation or artificial price hikes.
Similar policy proposals, Mr Musarara said, had included flour and milled products, but were later dropped following intense lobbying from the millers, whom he said now exceed140, cutting across small, medium and large-scale categories.
In a previous drought response in 2024, the Government initially issued 651 import permits to private companies to procure 3,2 million tonnes of maize, well above the country’s annual requirement of 2,2 million tonnes.
By October 2024, this had expanded to 807 permits issued to 420 companies for 4,13 million tonnes, with 812 165 tonnes already imported by that stage.
Last month, Professor Ncube said the Government would adopt a strategy similar to that implemented during the severe 2024 drought.
“As you know, if you go back to our template of what happened in 2024, which also was a serious drought year—in fact, the worst drought we had had in 40 years—we said that the first order of business is to allow Zimbabwean entities and individuals who have their own foreign currency to be able to import food,” he said.
“So, in other words, we will open up the borders. We will certainly be doing that, for sure. Then anyone with access to foreign currency will be able to import food.”
This comes against the background of the strong possibility of a potential “Super” El Niño this year.
Characterised by an abnormal warming of surface waters in the tropical Pacific Ocean, El Niño events historically trigger severe climate disruptions across southern Africa, primarily manifesting as prolonged dry spells, erratic rainfall and extreme heat.
What makes the current forecast particularly alarming is its intensity and timing.
Climate models indicate that this upcoming cycle could reach “Super” status — with Pacific temperatures surging more than 2°C above normal levels.
Climatologists warned that the 2026/27 cycle could rival the destructive power of 2015/16 and 1997/98 droughts, which decimated agriculture across the region. Models indicate an 80 percent probability of occurrence, with Zimbabwe falling in the high-risk zone where arid conditions persist 65 percent of the time.
This climate shock arrives hard on the heels of the devastating 2023/24 El Niño drought.
Just two seasons ago, a historic dry spell destroyed rain-fed agriculture across Zimbabwe, wiping out over 60 percent of the national maize harvest and forcing the Government to declare a State of National Disaster in April 2024.
The Government says it will intensify climate-proofing agricultural programmes and boost irrigation development to insulate the country from potentially devastating drought and guarantee food security. The Minister of Agriculture, Mechanisation and Water Resources Development, Dr Anxious Masuka, has confirmed that the Government has already drafted mitigation and adaptation scenarios, which will be presented to Cabinet before a nationwide rollout.
Analysts also weighed in, saying the forecasts of a potential El Niño deserve to be taken seriously.
Zimbabwe’s Meteorological Services Department has flagged an 88-94 percent probability of El Niño conditions developing for the 2026/27 season — a phenomenon that historically carries a 65 percent likelihood of below-normal rainfall for the country.
Dr Kingston Mujeyi, an agricultural economist at the University of Zimbabwe, warned that neither the Government nor the private sector can afford to treat the upcoming climate threat as a routine seasonal risk, especially given that the 2023/24 El Niño pushed nearly seven million Zimbabweans into food insecurity.
To navigate the crisis, Dr Mujeyi outlined a series of urgent interventions required from both sides of the economy.
On the Government side, Dr Mujeyi said grain reserve build-up needs to be locked in now, while shifting towards drought-tolerant traditional grains (sorghum, pearl millet, finger millet) needs to be backed by the same input support, market guarantees and GMB pricing incentives that maize enjoys.
Agricultural extension services require urgent reinvestment; climate-smart practices like Pfumvudza/Intwasa only translate into resilience if farmers are receiving real, localised technical support.
“There is also a need to seriously consider the scope of rolling out low-cost micro-irrigation kits for the Pfumvudza/Intwasa plots,” said Dr Mujeyi.
On the private sector side, Dr Mujeyi suggested that financial institutions and input suppliers should be structuring contract farming and input-on-credit arrangements around drought-tolerant crops now, ahead of the season, rather than “reactively” after a poor start to the rains.
He said agro-dealers and processors have a role in de-risking smallholder production through offtake agreements tied to climate-resilient varieties.
And insurers should be expanding index-based weather insurance products, which remain underused by smallholders despite their potential to cushion income shocks.
Dr Mujeyi identified smallholder farmers in natural regions three to five as the most vulnerable demographic, noting they are highly dependent on rain-fed agriculture and lack the financial resilience to withstand a crop failure.
“Any mitigation package that does not specifically target this group — through input support, water access, and livestock destocking or feed support — will miss where the real humanitarian risk sits,” said Dr Mujeyi.
“Drought affects livestock as much as crops. Strategic fodder production, supplementary feeding programmes, livestock vaccination, water provision and controlled destocking should be implemented before grazing conditions deteriorate.”
Regarding the current food security position, Cabinet projections indicate that Zimbabwe stands to realise a surplus strategic grain reserve ranging between 550 945 and 964 945 tonnes following the 2025/26 farming season. As of May 2026, Government stocks held at the Grain Marketing Board stood at 155 210 tonnes, comprising 36 593 tonnes of maize and 102 740 tonnes of strategic grain wheat. A total of 1 928 505 hectares of maize has been harvested, yielding 2,824,110 tonnes.
