Nqobile Bhebhe
Zimpapers Business Hub
ZIMBABWE’S expanding trade volume and surging mining exports are strengthening the country’s participation in international markets, but dependence on imported fuel, machinery and manufactured goods threatens to widen the trade deficit and undermine the benefits of export growth.
The African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank)’s September 2026 report projects total trade to rise to about US$26 billion in 2026 and 2027 from an estimated US$22,6 billion in 2025, indicating the country’s growing engagement with global markets.
The report warns that trade growth will not necessarily translate into a stronger external position, with imports expected to exceed exports as domestic demand, fuel requirements and capital goods needs remain firm.
“Zimbabwe’s trade profile is characterised by a mining-led export base and a goods and services trade deficit. Total trade increased from US$12,8 billion in 2018 to an estimated US$22,6 billion in 2025,” the report said.
Although the trade balance remained in deficit throughout the period, it narrowed to US$600 million in 2025, compared with an average of about US$2,4 billion between 2022 and 2024.
The improvement points to the potential for stronger export receipts to narrow the gap between imports and exports.
The outlook suggests that sustaining the gains will require greater domestic production, deeper mineral processing and improved competitiveness across manufacturing and other export-oriented industries.
“Exports are forecast to increase to US$12,6 billion in 2026, supported by mining receipts, particularly gold, while imports will remain higher at US$13,5 billion as domestic demand, fuel needs and capital goods requirements remain firm,” the report said.
“As a result, the trade deficit is expected to widen to nearly US$0,9 billion in 2026 and US$1,4 billion in 2027, keeping the external position sensitive to commodity prices, import costs and foreign-currency availability.”
The projections underline a central challenge for Zimbabwe’s industrialisation agenda of increasing export earnings while reducing the import intensity of domestic production. Mining remains the principal source of export strength, with metals and metal products constituting the largest export category in 2025 at US$1,4 billion.
Gold, platinum group metals, ferro-alloys and other mineral-linked products remain important contributors to foreign-currency receipts.
The United Arab Emirates was Zimbabwe’s largest export destination in 2025, accounting for about 38 percent of exports, followed by South Africa at 27 percent and China at 19 percent, the report notes.
While these markets provide important outlets for local products, the concentration of exports in minerals exposes the economy to international commodity price movements and reinforces the need to broaden the export base. On the import side, chemical, industrial and fuel products were the largest category in 2025, valued at US$800 million.
“Zimbabwe’s import profile reflects continued reliance on external supply for fuel, industrial inputs, machinery and manufactured consumer goods. South Africa and China are major sources of imports, accounting for 57 percent of the total combined,” the report said.
The reliance on imported petroleum products leaves businesses vulnerable to international oil price shocks, while dependence on machinery and industrial inputs increases production costs and foreign-currency requirements.
For industry, expanding local manufacturing capacity and strengthening domestic supply chains could reduce some of these pressures while creating opportunities for local producers to supply goods currently sourced from abroad. The report identifies mineral processing, improved energy and transport infrastructure and reduced reliance on imported fuel and manufactured goods as important determinants of Zimbabwe’s medium-term trade outlook.
Lithium presents one of the opportunities to increase the value earned from mineral exports.
“Lithium offers longer-term export potential, both from existing spodumene output and from the expansion of domestic processing into higher-value lithium products,” the report said.
The February 2026 restrictions on the export of raw minerals and lithium concentrate support the value-addition agenda by encouraging greater domestic processing.
The report adds that the economic gains will depend on whether investment in processing capacity is matched by reliable electricity, transport infrastructure, skills and an operating environment capable of supporting commercially viable projects. The report identifies potential upside from the Cabora Bassa Basin oil and gas project, following the May 2026 petroleum production sharing agreement signed between Zimbabwe and Geo Associates, Invictus Energy’s majority-owned local subsidiary.
If developed successfully, domestic petroleum production could offer longer-term opportunities to reduce import dependence, although the timing and scale of any contribution will depend on exploration, development and commercial production.
Beyond global markets, Zimbabwe’s regional trade relationships remain central to its export and industrial development prospects.
“In 2025, intra-African exports totalled US$2,4 billion, equivalent to 31,8 percent of global exports, while intra-African imports were higher at US$5,1 billion, or 48,3 percent of global imports,” the report said.
South Africa dominates both directions of Zimbabwe’s intra-African trade, accounting for around 85 percent of intra-African exports and 78 percent of intra-African imports.
Mozambique and Zambia are the next-most-important regional partners. The pattern reflects Zimbabwe’s integration into Southern African supply chains, but the higher value of regional imports also highlights scope to strengthen local manufacturing and increase the range of goods sold into neighbouring markets.
South Africa remains a major source of manufactured products, industrial inputs and consumer goods, while Mozambique provides access to eastern trade routes and Indian Ocean ports.
The North–South Corridor, connecting Zimbabwe with South Africa, Zambia and the Democratic Republic of Congo through Beitbridge, Harare and Chirundu, is critical to lowering the cost and improving the reliability of regional trade.
The report notes that improvements to roads, railways, border posts and logistics systems under the National Development Strategy 2 could reduce transit costs and improve the movement of goods.
The African Continental Free Trade Area presents opportunities for Zimbabwean businesses to participate more deeply in regional manufacturing networks.
The report shows automotive rules of origin approved in 2026, under which vehicles and components must meet a 40 percent African-originating content threshold to qualify for preferential AfCFTA trade terms.
The requirements could stimulate demand for regionally sourced steel, fabricated components and industrial inputs as automotive supply chains increase local and continental sourcing.
