Mozambique’s $25B LNG revival defies violence

An Islamist insurgency that froze TotalEnergies SE’s $24,5-billion gas project in Mozambique four years ago is intensifying, just as the French oil major prepares to restart development.

Militants affiliated with Islamic State have in recent months carried out raids across the northeastern Cabo Delgado province that hosts the Total project and another led by Exxon Mobil Corp. The number of attacks against civilians in the region has almost doubled in 2025 to the highest in years, according to the United Nations.

TotalEnergies’ announcement last weekend that it’s restarting the project — seen as pivotal to transforming one of the world’s poorest nations — lifted Mozambique’s eurobonds 2,9 percent on Monday. At the same time, there are growing fears among local communities that the security situation near the project site at Afungi is deteriorating — with more than 90 000 people fleeing attacks since the last week of September.

“Right now, people are living in fear,” Andrew Bogrand, a senior policy adviser at Oxfam America, said after a visit to the region that included a resettlement village adjacent to the project. “Folks in Quitunda, police officers, contractors — they don’t see how this project can work if people are concerned about security.”

The militants have in recent weeks made incursions into both Palma — neighbouring the LNG site — and nearby Mocimboa da Praia, where they filmed themselves preaching in a local mosque.

Total has estimated charges of $4,5 billion during the halt to construction, adding to the original $20 billion project cost — revisions that require government approval before work resumes. The company paid $3,9 billion for its 26,5 percent stake in the project and with partners has already invested more into building the plant that will add to global supply just as a wave of new production hits later this decade.

The resources promise lucrative returns, and the group has already flagged plans to double export capacity with a second phase. — Bloomberg

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