adminthe world, heightening the need for radical action to arrest emissions growth and limit climate change damage.
At Mauna Loa, Hawaii – the oldest and benchmark atmospheric measurement station in the world – since 1958, daily mean CO2 concentrations reached 400,03 ppm on May 9. The 400ppm threshold had already been broken first at stations in the Arctic in 2012, and at stations closer to the equator at the end of April 2013.
The upper safety limit for atmospheric CO2 is 350 ppm, according to the Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change. That’s the limit necessary to keep global warming and climate change at bay, or at least within manageable levels. But the level of greenhouse gases concentration have stayed way above the limit since the mid-80s and, on average, have risen by 2ppm per year in the last 10 years. Concentrations rose from 318ppm in 1958 to 350ppm in 1985 and to 396,18ppm by end of last year.
At the current rate of increase, the global annual average carbon dioxide concentration is set to cross the 400ppm mark in 2015 or 2016, according to the WMO.
“We can calculate with confidence that even with severe limits on emissions, carbon dioxide concentrations will be at least 450ppm by 2050,” said Collin Mutasa, a climate expert at Environment Africa, during a climate change workshop for journalists in Harare last July.
“If we allow for rapid economic growth based on continued use of fossil fuels, carbon dioxide concentrations will reach 600ppm by 2050 and about 950ppm by end of the century.”
CO2 is the major greenhouse gas that results from human activities and causes global warming and climate change. The IPCC estimates that the world is now experiencing its worst concentrations of carbon dioxide in nearly half a million years.
Call for action
Executive Secretary of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change Christina Figueres has called for stronger climate action in the wake of the latest statistics.
“With 400ppm CO2 in the atmosphere, we have crossed an historic threshold and entered a new danger zone,” Figueres said in a Press statement.
“The world must wake up and take note of what this means for human security, welfare and economic development. In the face of clear and present danger, we need a policy response which truly rises to the challenge. We still have a chance to stave off the worst effects of climate change, but this will require a greatly stepped-up response across all three central pillars of action: action by the international community, by government at all levels, and by business and finance.”
The world has struggled to limit emissions growth, even with signing of global treaties that seek to protect environmental damage.
At the last UN climate talks in December, the Kyoto Protocol was extended for a further seven years, creating a second commitment period that commits Annex I parties (selected developed nations) to an average 18 percent reduction in emissions from 1990 levels by 2020. However, today, the second commitment period only covers 15 percent of global emissions.
It is now apparent that Annex I parties’ Kyoto targets, combined with the bottom-up pledges by developed and developing countries under the UNFCCC, are not sufficient to keep the global temperature rise below 2 degrees Celsius, considered safe limit, says a report by the International Institute for Sustainable Development.
According to the UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2012, the two degree Celsius target will slip out of reach unless more ambitious action is taken before 2020. Yet, the problems of climate change have and continue ravishing poor developing countries, especially in Africa, the least contributor to the science.
In Zimbabwe, an agriculture-based economy, climate scientists predict that 70 years from now mean annual rainfall would be down 5-18 percent below 1961-90 levels, the peak period since records started in the early 20th century. Temperatures are seen warming at a rate of 0,15 degrees Celsius to 0,55 degrees Celsius per decade, which is an increase of up to 3,85 degrees Celsius in just 70 years.
Already, in the last century, Zimbabwe’s mean temperatures have risen 0,7 degrees Celsius, and the results from just this considered small increase have been devastating.
“Annual rainfall will decrease across Zimbabwe. The decrease will occur in all seasons, but it is more conclusive for the early and late rains than for the main rainy season months of December to February,” said Mutasa then.
“The frequency and duration of dry spells is also likely to increase. Extreme climate events such as dry conditions, heat waves and heavy precipitation will become more intense and frequent, as well as the risk of drought and flood events.”
For Southern Africa temperatures are projected to rise by between two and four degrees Celsius, as a result of higher carbon dioxide emissions. Rainfall in the region will decline by up to 15 percent, and rise similarly in other areas.
“We face an unavoidably radical future. We either continue with rising emissions and reap the radical repercussions of severe climate change, or we acknowledge that we have a choice and pursue radical emission reductions: No longer is there a non-radical option,” says Dr Bea Jefferson of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Research, UK.
God is faithful.
Email: [email protected]
Online Reporter