Ashly DhaniOliver Kazunga
ZIMBABWE’S macro-economic growth target is likely not to be severely weighed down by the predicted drought in the 2023-24 cropping season due to the El-Nino climate phenomenon as various initiatives are in place to mitigate effects of the adverse weather conditions.
The country’s macro-economy is expected to register a 5,3 percent growth this year and 5,2 percent in 2024.
The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) in July predicted the commencement of the devastating climate phenomenon, warning that its return would engender rising global temperatures and extreme weather conditions.
In Southern Africa, Zimbabwe alongside Madagascar and Mozambique are listed as highly exposed countries to the potent climate phenomena that is making a comeback in almost years.
In an interview, head of business strategy at the Agricultural Finance Corporation (AFC), Joseph Mverecha, said notwithstanding the size and predictions of the El-Nino, the country may receive early rains that calls for early planting and growing of drought resistant crops.
“For that reason also, the Government has given priority to irrigation development in terms of infrastructure development and rehabilitation not just for the summer cropping, but also winter cropping.
“We think that the magnitude of the El-Nino might not be as severe as it would be three or four years ago because of the progress that the Government has made on irrigation infrastructure rehabilitation,” he said.
“We are cautiously optimistic that the severity of the El-Nino will be moderated by the recent initiatives over the past two years or so by the Government to expand the irrigation infrastructure across the breadth and length of our country.”
Mining and agriculture are the backbone of the Zimbabwean economy, which is expected to register a 5,3 percent growth this year.
The positive macro-economic trajectory is anchored on the agriculture sector’s anticipated growth of 9,7 percent and the mining industry’s 4,8 percent growth.
“With early rains being predicted in the upcoming summer cropping season, this will also allow for early crop planting and various initiatives by the Government in the economy will mitigate the impact of the El-Nino.
“However, more still needs to be done in terms of expanding the reach of irrigation infrastructure in the economy.
“The growth of the economy may be moderated next year depending on the severity of the El-Nino,” said Mverecha.
He said the growth in agriculture has remained high over the past two years or so and it may be moderate.
“We are looking at growth of no less than 5 percent to 7,5 percent for the agriculture sector next year.”
The agriculture sector, which in 2021 surpassed the initial target of US$8,2 billion is now anticipated to reach US$13,75 billion by 2025.
Through the Livestock Recovery and Growth Plan (2021-2026), the Government aims to put in place solid interventions to address livestock production and productivity issues.
As a result of the measures taken to boost agricultural production, a bumper harvest of maize, wheat and traditional grains has been realised with rapid rising in yields also for other crops such as tobacco, oil seed and cotton.
According to the Tobacco Industry and Marketing Board (TIMB), a record 290 million kilogrammes of the golden leaf were sold on the auction floors during this year’s selling season.
At its peak in 2019, a total of 259 million kg of the golden leaf went under the hammer.
Under the Tobacco Value Chain Transformation Strategy, Zimbabwe seeks to increase tobacco output to 300 million kg by 2025, enhance value addition and beneficiation to around 30 percent through the production of cigarettes and grow the industry by US$5 billion by 2025.
Zimbabwe has this year produced 2,3 million tonnes of maize and 300 000 tonnes of traditional grains, which already guarantees national food and nutrition security, but with more grain still to be harvested, dried and shelled.
In a separate interview, an economic commentator, George Nhepera said; “While an EI-Nino induced drought is predictable, in my view agriculture sector is one among a few sectors, where proactive risk management and mitigation strategies have been put in place to ensure sustainable growth of the industry.
“We are often told by the experts in the field that the country already has enough water in the majority of the big dams to irrigate plants and crops, enough to feed the country.”
Nevertheless, the main impact of the predictable drought could largely affect provision of water in urban communities and cities.
“Such places are already grappling with provision of enough water to their residents, making it a tall order should a drought occur.
“A stakeholder approach should therefore be put in place, to do simulation scenarios, in mapping the solutions under the worst case scenario of the predictable drought.”
He said another sector likely to be affected by the drought is the energy sector, in respect of electricity generation.
“Once there are low levels of water in Kariba Dam, as is already being informally reported, then an energy crisis is looming.
“It’s time then to invest in alternative sources of energy which unfortunately take long to bear fruition due to the long-term nature of such investments,” said Nhepera.
In a separate interview, development economist Wendy Mpofu echoed similar sentiments.
In 2015-2016, an El-Nino-induced drought affected most parts of Zimbabwe, a situation that saw the country importing food largely grain from all over the world including countries as far as Eastern Europe.
Online Reporter