Oil’s rough week ends with rebound

Oil rose on Friday — paring a hefty weekly decline — before an OPEC+ meeting on supply at which Saudi Arabia could push for output cuts, and as efforts to revive an Iranian nuclear accord suffered a setback.

West Texas Intermediate climbed above US$88 a barrel, after slumping almost 11 percent over the prior three days. Crude has come under pressure this week as tighter monetary policy and renewed anti-virus lockdowns in China spurred concern that consumption will weaken. The dollar’s jump to an all-time high has also weighed on prices in the run-up to Monday’s OPEC+ gathering.

Oil fell by more than a fifth in the three months through August, erasing all of the gains since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The retreat poses a challenge for the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, with ministers due to meet on Monday to plan output policy. While OPEC-watchers expect the group to keep supply steady, Saudi Arabian Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman raised the possibility of a production cut in remarks last week.

“After the massive losses of the past three sessions, we may see some consolidation,” said Vandana Hari, founder of Vanda Insights in Singapore. “Our base case is a rollover by OPEC+ for October, but traders may be cautious not to short crude further until the outcome of Monday’s meeting is known.”

Traders were also tracking diplomatic efforts aimed at reviving Iran’s 2015 nuclear deal, which may unlock substantial crude flows if US sanctions are lifted as part of any agreement.

“The US State Department said Thursday that Iran’s latest response was “not constructive.” – Bloomberg

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