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Dr Masimba Mavaza Correspondent
Life has been a bed of roses for many Zimbabweans in the UK. It only took an unseen virus to flip the bed to the bud of roses thorny and prickly. One enduring lesson from the COVID-19 pandemic is that any lasting economic recovery will depend on resolving the health crisis.
The coronavirus outbreak has impacted the economy in many ways.
From lockdown restrictions shutting down many businesses to limits on mobility, voluntary and enforced, the economic impact has been severe.
The magnitude of the recession caused by the coronavirus outbreak is unprecedented in modern times. This is more visible in the diaspora societies in the United Kingdom.
Economic activity picked up over the spring and summer, reflecting the opening up of the economy and pent-up demand from the first lockdown.
This was followed by a further short-lived lockdown in November. GDP was nine percent lower in November than before the pandemic.
Restrictions were eased, briefly, in December. Then a surge forced the government to lift the bar to level five.
Government lockdowns, while succeeding in their intended goal of lowering infections, contributed considerably to the recession and had disproportional effects on vulnerable groups, such as those who are not in the health and health care professions.
But the recession was also largely driven by people voluntarily refraining from social interactions as they feared contracting the virus.
Therefore, lifting lockdowns is unlikely to lead to a decisive and sustained economic boost if infections are still elevated, as voluntary social distancing will likely persist.
Many people believed that lockdowns impose short term costs, but may lead to a faster economic recovery as they lose the infections and thus the extent of voluntary social distancing.
The UK government imposed tough lockdown regime which is level 5. The government is urging people to stay at home.
Many industries deemed not to be essential have been closed.
The cruel evil teeth of the lockdown have started digging in the flesh of many.
Many law firms have closed. One lawyer in the UK who specialises in immigration law commented: “This second wave is tough. We are not getting clients, offices are closed and we are working from home. No client would want to pay you anything if he or she has not met you face to face.
“Clients, they do not trust lawyers so you will not get any payment when clients are aware that the Home Office is closed. Courts are closed except very serious cases and because of that no one has an urge to pay.”
Another lawyer in London only identifying himself as Magumbe said: “The lockdown has brought misery to many lawyers. Clients are locked down, landlords are demanding their rent regardless and staff need to be paid. Many lawyers are closing shop. This is the most difficult time we are in.”
Another lawyer explained that he was specialising in medical law. Most of the clients were nurses and doctors. He thought he was lucky when he got 10 clients who were summoned before a regulatory board called NMC for various misconducts.
For most of these case, one charges up to 10 000 pounds per case. After collecting the deposit, the NMC made an announcement that nurses with less serious cases were forgiven and they must come back to the frontline to fight Covid19.
Obviously, this was joy to the nurses, but the problem comes when they start demanding their deposits because they are exonerated by Covid-19.
Every phone call you receive is a client demanding his money back.
“This situation has landed many lawyers in trouble and some have gone into depression with a few having committed suicide,” he said.
Even when the economic shock of coronavirus does eventually dissipate, the crisis may result in lasting damage to, and/or structural shifts in the economy.
The nationwide lockdown was imposed following the novel coronavirus pandemic.
This has impacted heavily on socio-economic, health and national healthcare, with focus on population belonging to low socio-economic stratum and some professions.
While the nationwide lockdown has resulted in financial losses and has affected all segments of society, the domino effect on health, healthcare and nutrition could possibly pose major setbacks to previously gained successes of National health programmes.
This is more so to foreign nationals residing in the UK. The foreigners have missed out on government plans to help companies.
Governments and central banks around the world introduced policies designed to mitigate at least some of the negative economic impacts from the coronavirus outbreak.
In the UK, many policies have been announced by the Government and the Bank of England in order to support businesses and workers.
The intention of these measures is to keep businesses afloat and, in turn, as many people as possible employed. The measures seek to financially support businesses, workers and the wider public during the outbreak, as well as attempting to reduce the economic uncertainty.
Apart from firm economic measures, all National Health Programs should be re-strengthened to avert possible surge of communicable (apart from Covid-19) and non-communicable diseases.
These efforts should be focussed on population belonging to those professions which are judged to be none essential. Those workers who are not recognised as key have suffered in silence and most of them have degenerated into mental health.
There are Zimbabweans who are benefiting from the situation, their jobs are considered as essential and these are nurses, doctors, those who work in health sector, those who are train drivers and many other jobs.
They have had a windfall as their salaries has been raised and they are getting more income than before.
Josephine Mungate, a nurse, was cautious not to celebrate.
“I am not saying Covid is good, but it’s true Covid has paid us handsomely,” she said. “Many nurses have upgraded their houses, their wardrobes and upgraded their cars. It is moments like these that people are cursing their ancestors for not making them nurses.”
Prosper Dambudzo from London saw it differently.
“Yes, as a nurse I am getting more money, but the problem is that I am in the frontline,” he said. “Everyday I leave my house could be the last. Each time I look at my children in this pandemic I am always praying that God allows me to see them again.
“Many friends have left their homes for the last time without knowing. Despite a lot of monies I receive, my heart is never settled. We are in a war. Biological warfare and we are the shield of the community.”
Max Ngoshi, a nurse from London added: “No amount of money can buy me a life. We are always in danger by the time this pandemic is over there will be no nurses left to run the hospitals. We are getting money now, but to what end?”
Many towns are closed, offices are closed, police now issue harsh funds to those found in towns not doing essential work.
It is true that a balance can be achieved in protecting public health while preventing a protracted economic decline. Lockdowns impose short-term costs, but may lead to a faster economic recovery as they lower infections and thus the extent of voluntary social distancing.
The voluntary social distancing is larger in advanced economies where people can work from home more easily or can even afford to stop working thanks to personal savings and social security benefits.
The government of Britain dished out loans last year at the beginning of Covid-19 which saw several people developing their projects back home.
This time the government has no plans of dishing out any funds.
Conversely, people in low-income countries are often unable to opt for voluntary social distancing as they do not have the financial means to cope with a temporary income loss.
The two waves both lockdowns and voluntary social distancing contributed substantially to the drop in labour demand.
The large contribution of voluntary social distancing in reducing mobility and job postings should warn policymakers against lifting lockdowns when infections are still elevated in the hope of jump-starting economic activity.
But there is a cost to lockdowns.
What motivates governments to lockdown economies is the belief that health risks appear to be a pre-condition to allow for a strong and sustained economic recovery.
In this regard, they believe that lockdowns can substantially reduce infections.
The effects are particularly strong if lockdowns are adopted early in a country’s epidemic. This is very true and was proven in the first wave, but this does not help those whose jobs are affected by the lockdowns.
While lockdowns must be sufficiently strict to curb infections, thus suggesting that stringent and short-lived lockdowns could be preferable to mild and prolonged measures many Zimbabweans in the UK are groaning in the privacy of their homes.
The effectiveness of lockdowns in reducing infections, coupled with the finding that infections can considerably harm economic activity because of voluntary social distancing, calls for re-considering the prevailing narrative about lockdowns involving a trade-off between saving lives and supporting the economy.
Effective lockdown measures taken early during an epidemic may lead to a faster economic recovery by containing the virus and reducing voluntary social distancing.
These medium-term gains may offset the short-term costs of lockdowns, possibly even leading to positive overall effects on the economy.
When God lifts his hand against Covid-19, those who groan now will rejoice then.
Covid-19 in the UK has again affected many Zimbabwean churches. Pastors who lived on tithes and offerings from church members now are starved as no church member is able to continue paying tithes in the face of this pandemic.
Many Zimbabweans in the UK have established their companies. These companies have been seriously affected by Covid-19.
Being your own paymaster has its difficulties and these are the difficulties facing some Zimbabweans in the diaspora.
Many of those suffering have families back home relying on them and many other extended family members who are also receiving from their extended hands.
Now, Covid-19 has bitten the extended hand and many streams down the valley are running dry.
The crisis is having disproportionate effects on more vulnerable groups.
The stay-at-home orders and the associated school closures led to a larger drop in the mobility of women relative to men.
This effect is largely due to the disproportionate burden that women face in caring for children, which may prevent them from going to work, thus jeopardizing their employment opportunities.
So many single mothers are forced out of employment and making them destitute.
However, the British government has introduced a targeted policy intervention such as strengthening unemployment benefits and supporting paid leave for parents to protect more vulnerable people and ensure that the crisis does not lead to a long-lasting widening of inequality.
But there are those Zimbabweans whose visas do not allow them to have or benefit from public funding. They sit now between two crushing hummers.
The Covid-19 has necessitated the need for attention to the underserved and marginalised populations holistically, to prevent long-lasting adverse health outcomes.
Economic stressors on the whole population will need mitigation and quick changes in policy would help.
Finally, National Health Programmes for communicable diseases must be re-vitalised and strengthened. [email protected]
Online Reporter