adminis the government troops trying to create an unfavourable impression of RENAMO militants, whose stronghold is Muxungue province, where the attacks reportedly happened.
The militant group turned political party, which adhered to a ceasefire that ended a bloody civil war with the ruling Mozambique Liberation Front (FRELIMO) more than 20 years ago, has taken up arms again, purportedly in retaliation to a police raid on one of the party’s quarters. The renewed flare-up of violence casts a shadow on the country’s next elections, scheduled for 2014.
Since last year, Renamo leader, Afonso Dhlakama, has been threatening that he and his followers might reinstate attacks if the government did not implement significant changes in the electoral system as well as in the allocation of wealth, created by Mozambique’s abundance of resources. Mozambique has seen a huge economic upturn as it lured many international investors after the end of the civil war.
The first elections took place in 1994, with Frelimo winning a narrow majority. Mozambicans, who had not experienced much more than bloody violence over the 16 years of civil war, were satisfied with the politics of their government over the following elections as the ruling party gained more and more votes. At the same time the Mozambican National Resistance was losing its support. From about 33percent in 1994, its share of the vote dropped down to about 16 percent in 2009.
Years after the end of the war, Renamo remains tightly militarised with its ageing rebel leader, Dhlakama at the top. The party appears to have missed an opportunity to reinvent itself and contribute to modern Mozambique, which is full of economic opportunities. Recently, the BBC asked if Mozambique would end up like Norway or Nigeria, implicating the great chances of the vast oil and coal discoveries, may yield great economic returns. However, Renamo still sticks to its rivalry with the ruling party and this does not only increase the likelihood of violence during the elections next year, but could also have significant implications for the country’s economy. So Dhlakama and his fighters, though lacking support of broad Mozambican society which fears a return to violence, could harm the country in the long-term.
So why is Renamo doing this? Renamo security chief, Ossufo Momad, said “Renamo is tired of persecution, humiliation, repression, dictatorship and slavery” while Dhlakama recently made clear that he and his party would want to profit more from Mozambique’s oil and gas riches and that they would regard the electoral system as unfavourable to them. However, the real reason lies somewhere in between. As previously mentioned, Renamo, as a political party, has never managed to have popular appeal, and with every election it continues to lose influence.
Most Mozambicans are tired of war and, and with the absence of war are confident about their future. What they want is an improvement of their own situation, less poverty, more wealth and opportunities — to achieve this, economic growth is necessary. So if they have to choose between the two major parties, they preponderantly decide against Renamo, a group of former rebels which is mainly situated in the deep rainforest, where it is forever preparing itself for potential military actions.
Renamo simply does not comply with the requirements of the modern Mozambican.
It is a party, which has over-aged, not able to adapt to the conditions of the ‘New Mozambique’. Reinforcing such a view is the fact that even though the votes have constantly decreased since 1994, Dhlakama continues to be the party’s presidential candidate in every election.
Even though Renamo only represents a small share of Mozambicans, the future of the country could be strongly impacted by continued military activities of the party. If it continues its belligerent stance it will likely lead to deterrence of urgently needed investors, particularly those investors looking to build oil and coal exploitation infrastructure in Mozambique.
This is particularly disconcerting, because on its own the country is unable to make the needed infrastructure investments, which are necessary to exploit its abundant natural resources. Mozambique depends on heavily foreign funds and for that it requires political and social stability. Particularly in regard to the upcoming national elections in 2014 — Renamo has the possibility to gain an international audience, should it provoke further violence.
However, the Mozambican government could help to minimise the chances for an escalation of the situation. Renamo depicts its violent attacks as a result of a systematic discrimination by the government.
Source: Political Analysis South Africa.
Online Reporter