Online Reporter
Surging gold and the slide in oil prices are offering some African countries a rare boost, as the region copes with the fallout from President Donald Trump’s trade war and freeze on US aid.
While oil exporters Angola and Nigeria will be hit after Brent crude slumped below US$67 per barrel from around US$75 at the start of the month, energy importers including South Africa will get a bit of relief.
The jump in gold prices past US$3 500 an ounce for the first time, amid concern that Trump may seek to oust Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, provides additional support, with Ghana, the region’s largest gold exporter, among those standing to benefit.
“Gold strong, oil weak looks very pretty for South Africa,” said Nicky Weimar, chief economist at Nedbank in Johannesburg, adding the main benefit is from lower energy import costs.
She cautioned the country doesn’t earn as much from gold as in the past, and the prices for its other exports including platinum and coal have also been hurt by the same concerns over global growth that hit oil. But net/net South Africa looks to be coming out ahead.
“Does this psychologically give the rand a boost? Without a doubt,” she said. “It does help to calm inflation fears and that obviously feeds through to interest rates.”
The rand was trading 0,8 percent firmer at 18,58 against the dollar at 3:30 p.m. in Johannesburg.
The South African Reserve Bank held rates at 7,5 percent last month, despite inflation near the floor of its 3 percent to 6 percent target range, arguing that uncertainty warrants policy caution.
Ghana, which has been battling annual inflation around 23 percent while restructuring its debts after defaulting in 2022, looks like a clear winner from the bullion rally.
“The surge in gold prices should support investor sentiment towards Ghana external bonds, especially given cheap entry points after the recent sell-off in emerging market high-yield credit,” said Samir Gadio, head of Africa strategy at Standard Chartered Plc in London.
“The gold rally could also help the Bank of Ghana to anchor the cedi as it continues to accumulate reserves.”
Ghana’s 2035 Eurobonds rose 0,1 percent to 65,43 US cents on the dollar at 12:51 pm in London.
African Eurobonds were among those hurt as investors retreated from riskier markets as Trump unveiled much harsher-than-expected tariffs earlier this month.
The region was already looking at a dollar squeeze after he froze US aid for Africa.
Access to international credit markets got tougher after the trade war erupted, but if the bullion rally is sustained it will deliver an important lift to foreign exchange earnings.
Brent for June settlement slipped 1 percent to US$64,01 a barrel at 2:41 p.m. in Singapore.
“Higher gold prices are helping countries like Ghana and other gold exporters in frontier markets not to be as dependent on foreign financing,” said Mark Bohlund, a senior credit research analyst with REDD Intelligence.
Reduced pressure on foreign reserves to finance oil imports will also help Ghana, Kenya and South Africa, as well as aiding inflation and “that should lead to more monetary easing,” he said. — Bloomberg.
