Online Reporter
Sifelani Tsiko
Fact Check Editor
THE cyclical La Niña weather patterns, which brought heavy rains and flooding in much of southern Africa in the current summer season, killing more than 300 people and affecting millions of others, are weakening to a neutral El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase.
The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) said this week that this shift to a neutral phase could lead to a high possibility for the development of El Niño during the latter half of the year.
The naturally occurring El Nino – abnormal warming of the waters in the eastern Pacific that leads to hotter weather across the world, usually brings droughts to southern Africa, increasing risks to livelihoods and economies in the region.
La Niña involves the temporary cooling of temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean and this cycle, just like in the 2025 – 2026 cropping season, increases chances of a wetter spell coupled with floods and droughts in some parts of southern Africa.
WMO Global Producing Centres forecasts indicate a 60 percent chance of ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) neutral conditions – neither El Niño or La Niña during March–May 2026, rising to a 70 percent chance during April – June.
During May – July, the chance of neutral conditions is 60 percent, whilst the chance of an El Niño increases steadily to around 40 percent.
Climate experts say the warming El Niño weather phenomenon could form later this year, potentially pushing global temperatures to record heights.
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) says there is a 50 to 60 percent chance of El Nino developing during the July-September period and beyond, something that has severe implications for southern Africa that relies heavily on rain – fed agriculture.
However, forecast uncertainty still remains high, with the WMO saying predictions issued at this time of year are typically less reliable due to the so-called boreal spring predictability barrier, a well-known limitation affecting ENSO outlook.
“The WMO community will be carefully monitoring conditions in the coming months to inform decision-making. The most recent El Niño, in 2023-24, was one of the five strongest on record and it played a role in the record global temperatures we saw in 2024,” said WMO secretary-general Celeste Saulo.
“Seasonal forecasts for El Niño and La Niña help us avert millions of dollars in economic losses and are essential planning tools for climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture, health, energy and water management,” she said.
“They are also a key part of the climate intelligence provided by WMO to support humanitarian operations and disaster risk management, and thus save lives.”
In the 2024 – 2025 cropping season, most countries in southern Africa experienced a dry spell that worsened hunger for millions of people, largely due to an El Niño-induced drought.
The drought was one of the worst in decades and prompted Zimbabwe and neighbouring countries to declare a state of disaster over food shortages.
However, in the current season, Zimbabwe is expecting a good harvest due to La Niña-induced rains, better crop conditions and projections according to the Crop and Livestock First Round Assessment (Clafa 1) results.
Government says sustained rainfall, increased hectarage, improved financing mechanisms and targeted policy interventions have combined to place the country on track for an improved harvest.
Peter Tanyanyiwa