Online Reporter
Business Reporter
ZIMBABWE’S relationship with wheat has reached a historic turning point, with national consumption figures for 2025 reaching an estimated 614 000 to 615 000 tonnes.
This surge is no longer driven by bread alone; a profound dietary shift is evident across the nation, where “wheat sadza” has emerged as a popular alternative to the traditional maize staple, alongside indigenous small grains.
Wheat production has seen a meteoric rise, increasing by over 540 percent to 581 percent from approximately 94 000–100 000 tonnes in 2019 to 640 195 tonnes in 2025.
This growth, attributed to the steadfast political will of the Second Republic, has ushered the country into self-sufficiency territory for soft wheat, moving away from the import-dependent episodes of the past.
As the country looks toward 2026, industry experts expect wheat consumption to rise further to 650 000 tonnes, a trajectory that solidifies wheat’s position as the second most widely consumed starch in Zimbabwe, surpassed only by maize.
Economist and agriculture expert Dr Reneth Mano notes that the traditional view of wheat as merely the “raw material for bread” is being challenged by modernisation, as rising incomes and urbanisation make products like pastas, noodles, biscuits, and savoury pastries daily staples.
With rising incomes and urbanisation, Zimbabweans are increasingly diversifying their meals. Pastas, noodles, biscuits, and savoury pastries have moved from the periphery of the grocery basket to become daily essentials.
This shift , according to Dr Mano represents a “big jump” in national demand.
This shift presents a specific technical challenge because while Zimbabwe excels at producing high-value “soft” wheat under irrigation, high-quality pasta and biscuits traditionally require “hard” wheat varieties with higher protein strength.
To break this costly dependency, recent harvests have included significant volumes of high-protein harder wheat varieties promoted by ARDA and the Government to reduce the need for imported gristing grain.
Under the 70:30 policy, Zimbabwe traditionally blended 70 percent local soft wheat with 30 percent imported hard wheat. However, due to improved local varieties and record production, imports are now set to fall below the 150 000 tonnes minimum threshold—a feat achieved only three times since the 2010/11 season, according to Dr Mano.
“What is clear from both AMA and GMAZ figures is that imports of wheat are set to fall below 150 000 tonnes minimum threshold a fit achieved only three times since 2010/11 marketing season,” he said.
The estimated consumption pattern for 2025 highlights the scale of national requirement, with commercial needs for bread and pastries sitting at 550 000 tonnes and farmer retention for seed and home use adding another 64 000 tonnes.
Per capita consumption is estimated to have increased to 28.38kg in 2025, up from 24.88kg in 2015.
In terms of policy, the Government adopted a wheat-based food security approach in 2024 during a severe drought, diverting 174 000 tonnes of local wheat for social welfare distribution while temporarily suspending the 70:30 blending ratio to allow the private sector to import freely.
This policy was re-introduced in October 2025 following the successful harvest. Despite raw production surpluses, the industry still manages strategic imports, which reached 318 245 tonnes in 2025.
Data validation remains a critical focus as the Agricultural Marketing Authority (AMA) fulfills its mandate to consolidate commercial purchases.
Dr Mano highlights that current lists of milling companies often omit small to medium-scale millers, leading to reporting discrepancies.
For instance, he said, purchases by GMAZ-listed firms at 407 313 tonnes already exceed the grand total reported by AMA’s procurement returns of 373 000 tonnes.
According to Dr Mano, if adjusted for a 70 percent market share, private sector purchases could reach 583 000 tonnes, which, when combined with GMB purchases, confirms the record 640 000 tonnes harvest estimate.
On the global stage, wheat prices have fallen to their lowest levels in six years, yet Dr Mano argues that geopolitical tensions and trade disruptions create a “bigger premium” for African countries to sustain national self-sufficiency.
