adminLONDON. — After Manchester City’s defeat at Anfield on Sunday, the race for a place in the English Premier League’s top four is fast becoming more intriguing than the battle for the title.
While leaders Chelsea have a five-point advantage over Manuel Pellegrini’s men and a game in hand, just three points separate resurgent Liverpool in fifth and Champions League soccer stalwarts Arsenal in third.
Manchester United are the side currently occupying fourth, ensuring a nervy end to the season for three of the division’s big guns — and their owners.
Champions League football brings with it huge financial rewards and a chance to face the continent’s premier sides, but which of the three contenders are best placed to sit at Europe’s top table next season?
Despite being two points behind United, history suggests that Brendan Rodgers is the man most well-equipped to lead his side to a top-four finish come May 24.
Looking back over their last five seasons of club management, Arsene Wenger and Louis van Gaal have both picked up fewer points than the Northern Irishman from January onwards — a fact made more impressive given Rodgers spent two of those seasons in charge of Swansea.
The ex-Watford boss has accumulated 168 points from 86 games during that period — more than Wenger (161) and Van Gaal (138), with 101 of those arriving during his spell at Anfield.
Rodgers can also boast a greater win percentage than his two rivals over the last half-decade, having led Liverpool and Swansea to victory in 58.1 per cent of their matches from New Year’s Day until the end of the season.
And on top of that, the former Reading manager has an impressive record when it comes to improving his side’s league position in the second half of the season.
In 2013-14 he took Liverpool from fifth to second, while the season before he moved the Reds up two places from ninth to seventh. He has also overseen a rise of three places since December 31, with Raheem Sterling and Co unbeaten in eight top-flight fixtures this year.
It was a similar story in south Wales, too, where he helped the Swans jump from 14th to 11th in 2011-12 and from fourth to third in the Championship the season before, going on to win promotion to the Premier League via the play-offs.
There is a definite trend in the form of Rodgers’ sides from January onwards, too. In each of the last five seasons his win percentage has always been higher in the second half of the season, noticeably so in some cases.
This season Liverpool had won 42.1 per cent of their games come the end of December but since the start of January they have come out on top 75 per cent of the time.
It was the same story in his first two seasons at Anfield as well, with 78.9 per cent of games won from January 2014 onwards compared with 57.9 per cent and the campaign before it was 50 per cent compared with just 35 per cent.
After the Gunners’ 2-0 win against Everton on Sunday, Wenger’s win percentage since the turn of the year is a whopping 75. However his overall win ratio stands at 56 per cent — less than Rodgers’ 58,1 per cent.
The Frenchman also has a mixed record when it comes to taking his side higher up the table from January, having gone from league leaders on December 31, 2013, to fourth come the end of last term.
In 2012-13 and 2011-12 the former Monaco boss did improve Arsenal’s position by a single place, noticeably sneaking into the top four ahead of London rivals Tottenham the season before last.
But the year before there was more disappointment as the Gunners slipped from third to fourth, meaning they had to beat Serie A side Udinese over a two-legged play-off to reach the Champions League group stage.
Before his second spell in charge of Holland, Van Gaal endured mixed results from January onwards with Bundesliga giants Bayern Munich and Eredivisie side AZ Alkmaar.
The Dutchman was sacked by the German outfit in April 2011 with the club fourth in the table, having won 58.3 per cent of his games from January onwards.
In the season before he got the boot, Van Gaal revived Bayern’s fortunes and led them to the title with 11 wins from 17 games as they rose from third in the table on New Year’s Day.
But an awful spell of form during the 2007-08 season with Alkmaar means that his overall win percentage from January stands at 52,6 per cent — marginally better than he has managed at Old Trafford so far but less than that of Wenger and Rodgers.
Asked about the impressive form shown by his side this year, Rodgers told talkSPORT: “Last season we won 12 out of the last 14 and that showed me the players have real stomach for a fight and that they also perform well, we were really fluent in that period.
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