Unpacking Zim’s 2024/25 seasonal forecast: A holistic approach for resilience

Prof Desmond Manatsa, Correspondent

Seasonal forecasts are invaluable decision-making tools, but their value lies in contextualising and applying the information effectively.

By understanding historical trends, local knowledge, and the broader climate landscape, stakeholders can make informed decisions and prepare for the impacts of seasonal variability.

This understanding is our compass, guiding us through the forecast’s predictions.

The national seasonal forecast issued by the Meteorological Services Department predicts a typical pattern with a bias towards above-normal rainfall nationwide, especially from November, when adequate rainfall is expected to start.

This forecast offers a glimmer of hope after the devastating drought of the previous season.

It is a positive sign that we can work with, but it is crucial to interpret this information within the context of Zimbabwe’s evolving climate.

The revised agro ecological zoning (AEZ) map provides a crucial foundation for understanding and addressing the nation’s changing climate.

This map delineates Zimbabwe into distinct regions based on updated data from recent decades using factors like rainfall, temperature, and soil characteristics.

It enables stakeholders to translate the normal rainfall forecast into actionable insights.

The data reveals that Zimbabwe has undergone significant climatic transformations in recent decades.

The ‘new climate normal’ is characterised by season onset that shifted from mid-October to November and increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events like dry and wet spells.

There is also a warming trend coupled with increased evapotranspiration leading to deterioration in vegetation productivity.

Flash floods, severe thunderstorms accompanied by hailstones and strong winds are standard features within the regular season.

Stakeholders must be aware of and prepared for this ‘new normal’ to navigate the challenges and opportunities the seasonal forecast presents effectively.

The potential effects of the 2024-2025 forecast, with its normal with an above-normal bias, could be considerable. When superimposed on the new ‘climate normal’ background, any departure from historical norms may intensify existing vulnerabilities and increase challenges across various sectors, including agriculture, energy, and health.

This underscores the need for proactive planning and adaptation strategies.

By planning ahead and implementing these strategies, we can take control of the situation and minimise the potentially negative impacts, ensuring we are prepared to navigate the challenges effectively.

The forecast could benefit maize cultivation in the agricultural sector, a crop susceptible to drought conditions.

However, excessive rainfall presents the danger of waterlogging, potentially resulting in significant yield reductions.

Improved grazing conditions and increased water availability for livestock may also be observed.

Still, higher humidity levels could raise health risks from vector-borne diseases, underscoring the need for careful livestock management.

To address these challenges, farmers are urged to embrace climate-smart agricultural techniques, such as crop diversification, improved water management, drought-resistant crop varieties, and conservation practices to maintain soil health and fertility.

Investing in agricultural research and development is also essential for creating innovative strategies to tackle the complex challenges of climate change.

While increased rainfall is anticipated, it is essential to consider its spatial and temporal distribution.

Careful planning and responsible practices are crucial to ensure sustainable water resource management.

Water management agencies must balance infrastructure maintenance with flood and drought mitigation.

Promoting water conservation across sectors, adopting efficient technologies, and protecting water sources are vital for long-term sustainability.

The energy sector should anticipate potential benefits and challenges, including increased hydropower generation and possible disruptions to transmission infrastructure. Contingency planning, energy diversification, and grid modernisation are essential for reliable power supply during the rainy season.

The Eastern Highlands Natural Region 1 (NR1) has remained the region most resilient to climate change over the decades. Farmers can confidently invest in the usual long-season, high-value crops given the predominantly normal rainfall outlook. However, focusing on soil and water conservation techniques is crucial to maximising productivity.

The rainfall forecast in the moderately wet NR II (a) and NR II (b) regions offer a broader range of crop options.

Still, farmers must manage water efficiently and adopt climate-smart practices to cope with the expected prolonged dry spells.

The arid NR IV region forecast necessitates focusing on drought-tolerant crops and implementing rainwater harvesting techniques.

A near-normal rainfall forecast does not mean much deviation from the usual practice for NR V(a), which is suitable for livestock, wildlife, and drought-tolerant crops under irrigation. Natural Region V (b), recently introduced, is now observed to be marginal for rain fed agriculture and better suited for extensive livestock, wildlife, and limited irrigation-based production.

The AEZ information and the forecast have broad implications beyond agriculture.

Tailoring this data to specific sectors’ needs is crucial for informed decision-making.

By considering disaster management, energy, and health implications, policymakers can develop more comprehensive strategies.

AEZ climate data can inform disaster preparedness, particularly in water-scarce regions. For the energy sector, it aids reservoir management and maintenance decisions. AEZ profiles help identify and address health risks in vulnerable areas of the health sector.

For policymakers and agribusiness, this data is essential for agricultural production planning, food security, and targeted investments in climate-smart infrastructure.

The 2024/25 season offers opportunities and challenges. Stakeholders can develop effective strategies by considering the forecast within a changing climate.

A holistic approach is crucial for sustainable development. Zimbabwe can leverage AEZ information to tailor its response, enhancing its ability to navigate challenges and seize opportunities.

Throughout the season, consult relevant institutions, especially the Meteorological Services Department and extension officers on minimising risk.

Prof Desmond Manatsa is a climate scientist and Head of the Climate Change Resilience Building Innovations Centre at Bindura University of Science Education. He led the national team of researchers that revised the Agro ecological Regions Map of Zimbabwe and participated annually in formulating the national seasonal forecasts.