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JOHANNESBURG. —If you’re hoping for a swift ending to the Covid-19 pandemic in South Africa, this probably isn’t the news you want to see.
A leading public health researcher has suggested that the vaccine may not be rolled out properly in South Africa until “the second half of 2020”. This would mean that the country is, at least, six months away from any sort of return to normality.
Safura Abdool Karim said this week that a delay in securing “national approval” for the jabs could hold South Africa back. If that name sounds familiar, it’s because she is the daughter of SA’s leading epidemiologist and Covid-19 analyst, Salim Abdool Karim.
Both are amongst the top experts in their field, and Safura is well-known for her medical insights.
Unfortunately, that means her bleak forecasts have to be taken seriously. According to the younger Abdool Karim’s study, there could be genuine problems in getting the vaccine distributed quickly, given that “richer countries” have better access to the so-called “Covid cure”.
She predicts that vaccinations may have to wait until the second half of 2021.
“The details of a vaccine rollout plan for the country are still lacking. Such a strategy will, among other things, guide us as to who will receive Covid-19 jabs first. People are sort of saying optimistically in the middle of next year — but it could be later than that depending on how long it takes to get the approvals.”
“Some wealthier countries, like the United States and United Kingdom, have been able both to fund the development of vaccines and invest billions of dollars in candidates being tested. Less wealthy countries like South Africa, unable to do either of these, are almost certainly going to have more limited access to Covid-19 vaccines.”
The prediction somewhat flies in the face of what President Ramaphosa said on Monday, claiming that the jabs could be ready early next year. Safura Abdool Karim has also explained that determining who’s “first in line” for the vaccine is a particularly difficult job in SA.
Although the elderly and infirm will likely jump the queue, there’s an argument that younger HIV and TB positive citizens should be prioritised too. Sadly, our vaccination programme is likely to be littered with stumbling blocks.
“South Africa — and every country — must make its own allocation decisions, taking into account context-specific issues. Some countries have greater burdens of diseases considered “comorbidities” for Covid-19 and will have a harder time prioritising for the first 20 percent of people to receive jabs.” — The South African.
“For example, South Africa’s population is fairly young. But has a high prevalence of HIV, TB, and non-communicable diseases like diabetes, hypertension and obesity – all known risk factors for severe COVID-19. This is why South Africa needs to develop a context-specific way to allocate the limited number of vaccine doses.”
Online Reporter