We are in for a big treat

Bothwell Mahlengwe
WE are set for a fascinating end to the 2014 Castle Lager Premier Soccer League season. Unlike other seasons, where some matches would be dead rubbers by now, this time every match counts as they have a bearing on either the title race, top two, top four, top eight or relegation puzzle.

The introduction of the One Wallet Cup has reignited the need for teams to finish in the top eight and the Mbada Diamonds Cup has thrown an incentive for teams to finish in the top four.

The likelihood of a repeat of the TM Pick ‘n’ Pay Challenge Cup next year has added another dimension to the championship race as a carrot for a finish in the top two.

These new dimensions have made sure that there will be very little, if any, manipulation to match results especially those for Match-day 29.

Every team has something to play for this weekend.

The Championship

A Dynamos win tomorrow seals it for the Glamour Boys while a ZPC win or a draw pushes the title race to the last day of the season. A ZPC win, too, eliminates CAPS from the championship equation while a DeMbare win eliminates everyone.

CAPS have a virtually impossible chance of winning the league title this season.

My take is, and has always been that, this is one too, is in Dynamos’ bag.

ZPC needs a positive result in their penultimate match against CAPS for them to finish in the top two. CAPS can only finish in the top two with two wins and either a Dynamos/ZPC draw or a ZPC loss to Dynamos.

Top Four

The magic number of points is 49. So Dynamos, ZPC and CAPS are guaranteed of a top four finish. FC Platinum seals it with a win at Hwange. A draw between Hwange and Platinum or a Hwange win and wins by Highlanders and Chicken Inn on Match day 29 opens up the fight for the fourth place finish.

Both Highlanders and Hwange need to win their remaining matches to entertain hopes of a top four finish.

Even with those wins, fourth position will be decided on goal difference.

Interestingly, however, is how these permutations have a huge bearing on the relegation puzzle.

Top Eight

The magic number of points is 40. All teams in the current top six are guaranteed a top eight finish. Chicken Inn guarantees its top eight finish with a positive result in either of their last two games.

How Mine can also seal their top eight finish with a win against Bantu Rovers and Buffaloes failing to win at Chicken Inn.

On the other hand, Buffaloes needs two wins and a How Mine loss to sneak into the top eight.

Triangle, Harare City and either Chapungu or Black Rhinos can sneak into the top eight with two wins aided by How Mine dropping at least four points as well as Buffaloes dropping at least three points in their respective final two matches.

My take is How Mine will take the last top eight spot.

Relegation Puzzle

Chiredzi FC and Bantu Rovers are officially relegated.

The magic number of points is 39. Shabanie Mine cannot get there. Either or both of Chapungu and Black Rhinos cannot get there.

Shabanie Mine need two wins to survive relegation. Still they will need other teams to falter. They also can survive with at least one win aided by losses in both the remaining matches by either two of the four teams currently on 34 points. They play Highlanders at home and Triangle at Gibbo.

My take is they are as good as gone and current form points to that as well.

Black Rhinos need a win against Chapungu in Gweru to take control of their destiny.

A draw in their last match after this ensures their safety.

The interesting part is this is almost a repeat of a 2002 fixture where Chapungu needed three points from their last fixture against Black Rhinos to survive the chop.

After leading 4 – 0 at half time, Black Rhinos uncharacteristically lost the match 4 – 5 and Chapungu survived the chop.

Rhinos even missed a penalty.

This time no one has that comfort and it’s dog eat dog. Interestingly, any one of the ZDF teams can go this season.

Rhinos face Bantu in Kadoma in their final fixture.

Harare City have to get at least four points in their last fixtures and hope Shabanie Mine drop points and Chapungu, Triangle, Black Rhinos and Buffaloes drop at least three points.

A loss in either of their two games, against CAPS and Chicken Inn in Harare, puts them in a precarious position as it worsens their already bad goal difference.

A positive result in their Match Day 29 game would be a big morale-booster.

Triangle are in a similar position as Harare City. Four points will see them survive as one of their games is against Shabanie. Their games are “easier” as they will be playing both of them at ‘home’.

Their fate is in their hands.

However, their match against Chiredzi provides an interesting watch.

Chapungu also need four points to survive.

A win against Rhinos might do the trick though as it means Rhinos would have to beat Bantu Rovers by a margin of at least 10 goals.

They play Highlanders in Bulawayo in their final fixture.

Buffaloes are in a flattering but dangerous position.

Three points will ensure their survival. Two draws might do the trick if the Chapungu/Rhinos match produces a winner. Buffaloes face Chicken Inn in Bulawayo and Hwange in Mutare.

How Mine are as good as safe.

A positive result against Bantu ensures their survival.

However, a loss against Bantu might be tragic as they face Dynamos in Harare in their penultimate match.

The interesting part about this year’s final fixtures is that they are self-monitoring.

This is truly a grand finale and it’s taking no prisoners.

We are in for a weekend of tense, rich and entertaining football.