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The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) recently published its State of the Climate report for 2021 which warns of the dire consequences of humanity’s continuing emissions of greenhouse gases through the burning of fossil fuels.
In this report, Sifelani Tsiko (ST), Agric, Environment & Innovations Editor speaks to Dr Leonard Unganai (LU), programme co-ordinator and climate change expert with Oxfam in Zimbabwe on the implications of the latest findings on the country and Southern Africa as a whole.
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ST: Intensifying climate hazards could put millions of lives at risk in Southern Africa as there is a 50/50 chance of average global temperature reaching 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels in the next five years, according to a new report by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) published recently. Have you heard about the new findings by the WMO?
LU: Indeed, I have seen the WMO report and we all need to be concerned with the rate of global warming and the accompanying climatic changes. The rising global temperatures will hit the poor communities hardest. It is the poor who have fewer resources to cope that face greater exposure to climate hazards, such as more extreme rainfall or drought conditions.
ST: Does it also mean that southern Africa will also endure high temperatures too as predicted in the report?
LU: Southern Africa, like the rest of the world, is already showing a warming trend and predictions from most global climate models suggest that this warming trend will continue into the future. In 2021, the global average temperature was about 1.1degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial period and this is quite comparable to the warming observed over Southern Africa and even Zimbabwe for the same period.
ST: In the latest report, there is reference to the La Nina and El Nino phenomenon. How is it likely going to impact the Southern Africa region in terms of rains, floods and drought?
LU: It has been observed that some of the warmest years in the past globally have coincided with El Nino events, whereas La Nina years have tended to result in some temporary cooling. Most parts of southern Africa, including Zimbabwe tend to experience drought during El Nino years and very wet conditions during La Nina.
These patterns are likely to continue in future. However, because of climate change, both El Nino and La Nina are likely to increase the change of extreme conditions of drought and wetness (floods) respectively.
So when we have an El Nino we could see droughts being more intense and lasting longer than before. We may need to plan for back to back droughts stretching for two more successive years.
ST: What is your general comment on the report and its implications on southern Africa?
LU: The report sheds more insights on the state of the global climate. The Paris Agreement sets a target of 2 degrees Celsius warming to avoid dangerous climate change impacts on natural and human systems, whilst setting a more ambitious target of 1.5 degrees Celsius. However, from the report it appears we will be breaking the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold in some of the years between now and 2026, raising the risk of more harmful climate change impacts to people and the entire planet.
The biggest challenge will come from extreme weather events – droughts, storms, floods, heatwaves and so on. It is the poor countries that are likely to suffer the effects more.
At the country level, the poor, women, the elderly, children, people with disabilities and people living in drought or flood prone geographical regions will be among the worst affected.
ST: What do you think needs to be done to minimise the impact of climate change on the vulnerable in Southern Africa?
LU: There is a need to accelerate investments in adaptation and resilience building, whilst we do everything possible to implement commitments in the updated Nationally Determined Contributions to slow down Greenhouse Gas Emissions which is the main culprit behind global warming and climate change.
We should work to improve investments that cover critical areas such as strengthening early warning systems, making new infrastructure climate resilient, improving dryland agriculture for crop production, protecting our forests and biodiversity and making water resources more resilient. Failure to make economies and societies more resilient to future shocks brought about by climate change will pile pressure and the burden on the majority of the poor in Southern Africa.
Online Reporter