Online Reporter
Sifelani Tsiko
Fact Check Editor
THERE is a 55 percent chance of a weak La Niña affecting global weather patterns in the coming three months, according to a latest update from the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO).
The global weather agency said even though La Niña has a temporary cooling influence on global average temperatures, many regions were still expected to be warmer than normal.
Experts said this could lead to droughts and flooding in some parts, affecting agricultural production.
La Niña refers to the periodic large-scale cooling of the ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, coupled with changes in the tropical atmospheric circulation, including changes in winds, pressure and rainfall patterns.
The latest forecasts said oceanic and atmospheric indicators reveal borderline La Niña conditions.
“There is a 55 percent probability of crossing La Niña thresholds during the December–February 2025–2026 period,” the WMO said..
“For January–March and February–April 2026, the likelihood of returning to ENSO-neutral conditions gradually rises from about 65 percent to 75 percent. There is little likelihood of an El Niño, which typically has opposite impacts.
“Seasonal forecasts for El Niño and La Niña are essential planning tools for climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture, energy, health and transport. They are also a key component of WMO’s contribution to support humanitarian operations.
“This climate intelligence helps us to avert millions of dollars in economic losses and to save countless lives.”
National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) will closely monitor conditions over the coming months to help inform decision-makers.
Naturally occurring large-scale climate events such as La Niña and El Niño are taking place in the broader context of human-induced climate change, which is increasing global temperatures in the long-term, exacerbating extreme weather and climate events, and impacting seasonal rainfall and temperature patterns.
The latest update says that for December 2025 to February 2026, temperatures are expected to be above normal in much of the Northern hemisphere and large parts of the southern hemisphere.
Rainfall predictions resemble conditions typically observed during a weak La Niña. Southern Africa climate experts projected La Niña conditions to develop in the 2025-2026 rainfall season.
They said there was a greater chance that La Niña would develop this season, bringing wetter conditions.
La Ninas are normally associated with wet conditions for Zimbabwe and the entire southern Africa sub-continent, but a local weather expert cautioned that they sometimes don’t result in widespread rain.
Climate experts further say that La Nina events are also associated with heightened risk of cyclones as well as cool daytime temperatures.
Meteorological Services Department (MSD) forecasters regularly give forecast updates for Zimbabwe.
So far, the rainfall outlook shows that the greater half of Zimbabwe — east, central and southern parts are likely to receive above normal rains, while the northernmost arc — north and northwestern regions will get normal to above normal rains.
The La Niña weather event typically brings good rains in Zimbabwe and most other southern African countries.
It has provided relief for the entire sub-continent after a devastating drought ravaged this region in the 2023-2024 cropping season. The region is getting a second consecutive wetter season this time.
