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Ambassador Kwame Muzawazi
BLACK AMERICAN Pan-Africanist, historian and sociologist WEB Du Bois famously said: “The cause of war is preparation for war.”
From the reordering of geopolitics post the two World Wars, the Cold War, the decolonisation movement and increasing antagonism between unipolar and multipolar agendas, the world has been engaged in a never-ending arms race. Consciously or otherwise, the world has been preparing for a major war.
Today, with the Russia-Ukraine War, we stand on the brink and stare into the abyss.
The year 2024 is ending with the world at boiling point, with all major nuclear powers more ready than ever before to press the fire-and-obliterate button on their Armageddon devices. Mutually assured destruction (MAD) is more of a reality today than it was during the Cuban missile crisis.
Oddly, in Africa, we appear to be viewing the Russia-Ukraine conflict as some distant distraction in a theatre far from our reality.
Yet the biggest security threat to SADC, and, by extension, the rest of Africa is not the conflict in the DRC, or change of government in Botswana, or the uncertainty in Mozambique.
The biggest existential threat is the growing conflagration in Europe.
No two ways about it: The ability of the powers standing off in Europe to deliver MAD via the rapid exchange of nuclear missiles will culminate in the end of civilisation as we know it. It is, thus, utterly shocking that the African Union (AU) has not called for an urgent extraordinary summit to discuss this issue. The future of Africa may be inextricably linked to whether or not the West decides to implode in atomic fashion.
The precious peace of the pastoral farmer in Muzarabani is not as much threatened by a lethal reptile hidden in the savannah bushes as it is by decisions that will be made in nuclear command centres and military operations rooms 20 000 kilometres away, beyond a thousand mountains.
The oceans between Africa and the West will not matter when the button is pressed. Ill-judged neutrality will not secure a peaceful present and a prosperous future for the grandmother in rustic Nyamandhlovu.
As the well-known aphorism goes, if you want peace, prepare for war.
Battle lines drawn
Already, fully 20 percent of the countries in the world have picked sides and are directly or indirectly participating in the Russia-Ukraine war. Besides the two obvious protagonists, the war directly involves NATO and the United States, who are aiding and abetting Ukraine militarily, financially and politically.
In addition, the European Union (EU) has imposed sanctions on Russia as part of the effort to cripple Moscow, while at the same time providing military and financial support to Ukraine. Other states like Canada, Georgia and the United Kingdom are also directly backing Ukraine.
On the other hand, Russia has the active support of Belarus, while countries like Cuba, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Nicaragua, North Korea, Syria and Venezuela stand with Russia. Factoring the membership of the European Union (EU) and NATO in support of Ukraine on one side, and the as-yet-non-military backing for Russia from several countries, a fifth of the United Nations membership has been sucked into the war.
Africa, meanwhile, is indifferent and acts unaffected.
World War precedence
The last time global conflict erupted (1939-1945), Africa was an unwilling participant.
Much of the continent was under colonial domination and decisions on whether or not to support the Allied or Axis powers were determined in European capitals.
A reading of that conflict is instructive for Africa to appreciate that history will not allow us to sit back and think that the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war has nothing to do with us.
Thousands upon thousands of Africans were conscripted into colonial ranks to fight and die in World War II.
Read about the King’s African Rifles.
Read about how our grandfathers were “rewarded” with cheap medals for their participation, while returning white soldiers were settled in what they called Burma Valley.
Read that history and weep.
Our resources were looted to advance the causes of European geopolitical interests. African oil, rubber and other strategic minerals were pilfered. The uranium used to make the devices that decimated Nagasaki and Hiroshima came from what is now the DRC. And after the fighting ended, Europe and the US were stronger, and we still had no independence. Moreover, the actual fighting was exported from Europe to our territory.
In North Africa, European battles were waged in Algeria, Egypt, Libya and Tunisia.
In the east, Ethiopia hosted European wars.
That said, it is significant to note that though we were unwilling participants in World War II, that European tribal conflict provided impetus for the decolonisation agenda.
Impact on Africa
With the benefit of hindsight, we should know that there is no standing aside and hoping to cruise along while the rest of the world is either already at war or preparing for war.
The Russia-Ukraine war has major implications for Africa.
One of the impacts that can already be felt is that of food insecurity.
Russia and Ukraine are major global suppliers of wheat, maize and sunflower.
War in that region has resulted in the disruption of supply lines and an increase in prices of these commodities.
Similarly, Russia is one of the big boys when it comes to the energy supply chain.
Any food and energy insecurity stemming from this war has negative implications for Africa. Indeed, the health of the entire global economy hangs in the balance.
For an Africa that has long been vulnerable to external shocks, this does not bode well.
This is particularly so for those countries — which incidentally constitute the bulk of the AU membership — that depend on international aid and balance of payments support. Money that would ordinarily reach Africa’s begging bowls is being diverted to Ukraine, while Russia cannot continue to offer the level of bilateral support it used to.
For instance, as recently as September 2024, a document shared with EU member state representatives showed an average annual reduction in support to least-developed countries of 35 percent for 2025-2027 in comparison to allocations for 2021-2024.
In January 2024, it was reported that the European Council set aside over US$50 billion for Ukraine while cutting aid to least-developed countries by over US$5 billion.
Some estimates indicate that overall aid to Ukraine, a country of 37 million people, is at par with that set aside for Africa’s 1,2 billion people. Soon, financial support for Ukraine will outstrip that for Africa.
And then there are the security considerations. A major war in any part of the world can foment instability elsewhere.
Money laundering, the rise of extremism, reduced support for localised peacekeeping and the proliferation of arms are all real threats. Whichever way one cuts it, the implications of the Russia-Ukraine war on Africa are immense.
Missing: The AU’s voice
Taking into consideration all of the above, the AU must marshal a common position and a proactive response.
This is not to say Africa must join the war and dispatch troops to Europe.
No! It is just to say Africa cannot do nothing. The battle lines that have been drawn, and the escalation of the crisis since the US authorised use of its hardware for attacks inside Russian territory, highlight the need for African voices in global issues.
An extraordinary summit of the African Union must be called to articulate a continental response to a conflict that is threatening to engulf the world and wreak havoc on our economies and livelihoods.
We need a comprehensive plan to deal with the trade and value chain disruptions the war has caused and will cause.
We need to up our game in terms of self-sustenance so that we are better insulated from external shocks. We need to provide moral leadership in global governance and geopolitical issues when the rest of the world is hell-bent on MAD.
Faced with this existential threat, silence is not an option. No matter how far or alien this war may appear, it is at our doorstep.
Ambassador Kwame Muzawazi is the chief executive officer of the Institute of African Knowledge (INSTAK), an emerging Pan-African think tank based in Harare. He writes here in his personal capacity.
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