adminA number of leading economic indicators and trade statistics suggest continued weakness in global trade and output in the first half of 2019.
Year-on-year growth in monthly merchandise exports and imports remained depressed up to March with the dollar value of exports from the United States, the European Union and Japan down 1 percent, 7 percent and 7 percent respectively.
China’s exports were up 14 percent over the previous year but the increase was mostly due to a weak performance in March 2018. Imports also stalled, with no growth (0 percent) in the United States and declines of 2 percent, 4 percent and 8 percent in the European Union, Japan and China respectively.
Part of the decline may be due to lower oil prices in 2019 compared with 2018. Purchasing managers’ indices (PMIs), based on business surveys, are an early indicator of economic activity.
The Global Manufacturing PMI compiled by IHS-Market and JPMorgan dipped to 50,3 in April 2019, just above the threshold value of 50, indicating expansion. This suggests that economic growth will remain weak into the second quarter of 2019. The PMI reading for the United States was relatively strong (52,6) but the value for the euro area (47,9) was weak, indicating contraction. China’s PMI of 50,2 suggests steady if somewhat sluggish growth.
Online Reporter