adminall eyes are on the two leading political parties, Zanu-PF and MDC-T and to a lesser extent the Professor Welshman Ncube-led MDC.
Citizens are pondering which party will emerge victorious. Different opinions have been raised with others saying 2008 will repeat itself and an inclusive government will be formed again. Many political analysts have however tipped Zanu-PF to win the elections. Mr Morgan Tsvangirai’s MDC-T is still facing in-house problems that include factionalism which many believe will work against the party come the elections.
Zanu-PF, many believe, learnt from its 2008 election shortcomings hence they are more than prepared for the watershed elections.
Addressing delegates during the Zanu-PF national people’s conference in Gweru last year, President Mugabe said the party will fight to retain power.
“We are now like a wounded beast, and let’s fight back and win all our power back. We must mobilise ourselves for a resounding outcome, and the year 2013 will be the year of electoral success,” said President Mugabe.
Observers say many people have lost hope in Mr Tsvangirai’s leadership after his weaknesses were exposed by participating in the inclusive government.
They say MDC formations’ participation in the inclusive government has worked in favour of Zanu-PF.
Mr Tsvangirai recently conceded that his party was not ready to rule in 2008 and said he wanted to thank Zanu-PF for their apprentice during the years his party had been in the inclusive government.
“Zanu-PF will win the forthcoming elections. They are the oldest party with a lot of history that people in Zimbabwe can associate with.
“People can associate themselves with several of its policies that include land reform and economic empowerment which younger parties like the MDC formations do not have,” said Mr Joseph Kurebwa, a University of Zimbabwe political science lecturer.
Asked on whether people were going to use the party’s performance in the inclusive government to choose their leaders, Mr Kurebwa said: “People might use the party’s performance when it is time for them to vote. However, this is a hybrid government. There is no party that has a final say hence it is possible for people to say their party was not given enough space.
“The shortcoming of individual ministers may not count. Certain individuals might know these ministers on personal basis hence they might still vote for them,” he said.
Mr Godwine Mureriwa, a political analyst, said Zanu-PF was heading for a landslide victory in the forthcoming elections.
“Zanu-PF is definitely going to win the forthcoming elections. The party has clear ideologies and policies that take into account the people’s aspirations,” he said.
Mr Mureriwa echoed Mr Kurebwa’s sentiments that Zanu-PF’s people-centred economic policies guaranteed the party victory come elections.
He said the revolutionary party was assured of winning back some of the urban seats it lost to MDC-T in 2008.
“Zanu-PF will make some inroads in urban areas. Most of the MDC run councils have been riddled by corruption. They (MDC) have exposed themselves that they are more corrupt than Zanu-PF.
“The slogan Chinja maitiro unfortunately worked against them because they changed for the worse. They used to accuse Zanu-PF of corruption but it turned out they are the worst when it comes to corruption,” said Mr Mureriwa.
They said the same MDC formations that called for sanctions were in a panic mood and some of them were calling for the lifting of sanctions.
Mr Mureriwa said Mr Tsvangirai’s sex scandals had also worked against the party as many who looked up to him as a leader had realised he was not living an exemplary life.
He said the failure by MDC to come out clear regarding the issue of homosexuality was likely to cost the party votes.
Dr Lawton Hikwa, a political commentator, said it was probably too early to say which party was likely to win the elections.
He said there was a likelihood of another coalition government.
Dr Hikwa said voters were unlikely to be influenced by individual parties’ performance in the inclusive government in making their decision on who to vote for.
“It is difficult to speculate the party that is likely to win outright. The country might be heading for another inclusive government.
“People will vote based on the blueprints that the parties present during campaigns,” he said.
Dr Hikwa said poor service delivery was likely to cost MDC-T votes in urban areas where it controls almost all councils.
Mr Effy Ncube, a Bulawayo-based political analyst, said it was not clear who was likely to win in the forthcoming elections.
He said there were “hardcore” supporters that will not change their positions.
“The election will go either way. MDC-T has some misfortunes but this might not affect them depending on how loyal their supporters are.
“No one can say 2008 will repeat itself. The coming election will depend on the support base the political parties have,” said Mr Ncube.
A survey carried out by the Freedom House, a United States of America-based organisation, revealed that Zanu-PF has gained more ground compared to MDC-T.
The survey said in Harare, MDC-T support declined from 50 percent in 2010 to 17 percent, while Zanu-PF rose from eight percent to 22 percent. In Bulawayo, Zanu-PF increased its support from four percent to 15 percent, while that of the MDC-T declined from 51 percent to 29 percent.
Online Reporter