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Michael Tome
Business Reporter
THE Chamber of Mines of Zimbabwe (COMZ) expects mineral exports to reach US$6 billion next year, up from the US$5,5 billion projected this year.
Profitability is, however, expected to decline on the back of anticipated high costs of production and weak platinum and lithium prices.
According to the Mining Industry Prospects for 2025 report findings released on Thursday on the sidelines of the 27th Mining, Engineering and Transport Expo (Mine-Entra) in Bulawayo, mining executives are bullish of 2025 prospects compared to the current year on the back of better commodity prices, mainly gold, and forecasted recovery of platinum prices.
Overall, output in the mining sector is expected to reach 7 percent next year driven by increased capital expenditure.
Mines also plan to inject up to US$600 million in investments next year.
The Mining Business Confidence Index (MBCI) for 2025 is +5.4, which is an improvement from -0.3 that was recorded in the same period last year, reflecting the sector’s optimism in next year’s performance.
Generally, MBCI measures sentiment about the mining industry’s prospects in the next 12 months.
“The measured index for mineral output growth prospects for 2025 shows that mining executives are generally optimistic about the prospects of ramping up production next year. They are generally confident about their businesses’ prospects in 2025 driven by variables such as commodity market outlook and mining industry growth,” said the COMZ.
However, variables such as access to foreign exchange, investment, competitiveness, infrastructure and energy prospects are likely going to continue weighing down the MBCI.
Meanwhile, a survey showed that 56 percent of mining executives are likely going to spend more capital in 2025 compared to 2024, while 13 percent are planning to inject the same level of capital as in 2024. About 80 percent of mining executives have indicated that they will ramp up production by up to 20 percent in 2025.
The report says production is expected to be led by lithium output, which is anticipated to grow 32 percent to 5 000 tonnes, while gold production is projected to grow 9 percent to 36 tonnes. Other notable increases are expected from chrome and coal, whose production is forecast to grow 10 percent.
Coal production is anticipated to reach 5 500 tonnes and chromium 3 000 tonnes in 2025.
Platinum, palladium, diamonds and nickel production are all expected to register growth but below the 10 percent mark.
The survey shows that capacity utilisation is set to reach 90 percent in 2025, up from 84 percent in 2024, driven by key sectors such as gold, ferrochrome and PGMs (platinum group metals).
“Mineral revenues are expected to increase by around 10 percent to approximately US$6 billion in 2025 from about US$5,5 billion expected in 2024 on the back of improved output and some anticipated commodity price recovery in 2025,” added the report.
Due to the anticipated growth of the mining sector, mining entities’ payments to the Government are expected to reach US$1 billion next year from US$960 million expected in 2024. Production costs are expected to increase by an average of 8 percent in 2025.
But mining companies anticipate difficulties in accessing adequate foreign currency to meet their requirements.
The mining industry is a major contributor to the country’s export earnings, accounting for a 75 percent total exports.
Online Reporter