Online Reporter
Precious Manomano and Doris Mpala
ZIMBABWE is expected to experience generally drier-than-normal conditions during the 2026/27 summer season, with a strong El Nino phase likely to suppress rainfall and the Government is urging farmers, households and businesses to conserve water and prepare for prolonged dry spells.
The outlook was presented during the National Climate Outlook Forum (NACOF) in Harare last week, where the Ministry of Environment, Climate and Wildlife and the Meteorological Services Department (MSD) released Zimbabwe’s 2026/27 Seasonal Rainfall Outlook.
MSD Head of Forecasting Mr James Ngoma said the outlook, covering October 2026 to March 2027, was produced in consensus with other SADC countries during the 33rd Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF) held in Namibia from August 25 to 28.
“Looking at the seasonal forecast for the 2026-27 season, it was produced in consensus with other states from within SADC during the 33rd Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum, which was held in Namibia from the 25th to the 28th of August this year,” he said.
He said rainfall was generally expected to be suppressed, particularly during the first half of the season.
Mr Ngoma said rainfall patterns would vary across the country. October could bring slightly above-normal rainfall in some extreme northern districts, including parts of Mashonaland West and Mashonaland Central, while November was expected to be normal to below normal across much of the country.
In December, rainfall could improve in parts of the south-western districts.
“As we get into the month of December, we’re expecting a bit of an increase over the south-western districts such as Beitbridge into Gwanda and parts of Matabeleland South, where we’re expecting normal to above-normal rainfall,” said Mr Ngoma.
For January to March, the southern half of the country was expected to remain in the normal to below-normal category, while the northern half could experience below-normal to normal conditions.
The MSD attributed the expected suppression to the influence of a strong El Niño phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which affects atmospheric circulation and rainfall patterns across southern and eastern Africa.
Mr Ngoma urged the public to conserve and harvest whatever water is received during the season rather than panic over the forecast.
“For the public, we advise more conservative use of water, more of the water harvesting as the rainfall will still be available,” he said.
Dr Ndlovu said the expected combination of below-normal rainfall and warmer-than-normal temperatures could increase evaporation, resulting in faster loss of water from soils, dams, reservoirs and other sources.
“We must make every drop of water count,” she said.
Dr Ndlovu urged farmers to use short-term weather forecasts when making decisions on planting, fertiliser application and irrigation rather than relying solely on the traditional concept of the rainy season.
“Farmers should not simply wait for the traditional concept of the rainy season before making decisions,” she said.
“Agricultural activities, including planting, fertilisers and irrigation, should be guided by the 10-day weather forecast issued by the Meteorological Services Department.”
She urged farmers who rely on irrigation to use water efficiently and minimise losses, while irrigation schemes should be prepared before the main rains to enable farmers to respond quickly when conditions become suitable for planting.
Dr Ndlovu said communities could experience localised severe thunderstorms, strong winds, lightning and flash floods, stressing that dry conditions did not rule out extreme weather.
“Dry conditions do not mean that extreme weather events will not occur,” she said.
She called for early warning information from the MSD to reach families, schools, businesses and communities in time to enable them to take appropriate precautions.
The Minister also urged provinces to prepare livestock for possible dry spells by intensifying grass baling and storing fodder in dry, protected areas.
