Zimbabwe set to record decades-high GDP growth

Nqobile Bhebhe

Zimpapers Business Hub

THE Treasury has reviewed upwards the country’s economic growth forecast to 6,6 percent by the end of the year with the projected nominal Gross Domestic Product set to clock US$52,3 billion, the highest in nearly a decade.

Zimbabwe’s nominal GDP reached US$51, 07 billion in 2017.

This will be a milestone for Zimbabwe moving from the revised US$44,4 billion GDP announced in July this year from an initial estimate of US$35,2 billion following an economic census conducted by the Zimbabwe National Statistics Agency (Zimstats).

Finance, Economic Development and Investment Promotion Minister, Professor Mthuli Ncube, revealed this in Bulawayo yesterday while officially opening the 4th edition of the Zimbabwe Economic Development Conference (ZEDCON).

Zimbabwe’s economy is on a firm recovery path to sustainable growth following last year’s drought-induced slowdown, he said, noting fresh projections pointing to accelerated momentum driven by agriculture, mining and manufacturing.

“Building on this foundation, economic growth for 2025 is now projected above the original forecast of six percent to around 6,6 percent, with an expected nominal GDP of approximately US$52,3 billion,” said Prof Ncube.

“The higher projection is on account of more-than-anticipated output in the agricultural sector, particularly tobacco following favourable climatic conditions, and mining sector growth buoyed by high commodity prices, notably gold. “This growth trajectory is further underpinned by macroeconomic stability, with inflation moderating significantly since the introduction of the Zimbabwe Gold currency.”

Prof Ncube said the narrowing exchange rate gaps across the formal and parallel markets and prudent fiscal and monetary policies have created “an environment conducive for investment and growth”.

As such, Prof Ncube said the recently concluded Economic Census by ZIMSTAT had revealed robust economic activities taking place throughout the country.

“Notably, the Economic Census shows that the country’s Gross Domestic Product stood at US$45,7 billion in 2024, reflecting positive momentum in our national economy. It’s imperative that we sustain this growth momentum, while ensuring that the benefits of growth accrue and reach every citizen of Zimbabwe,” he said.

Contrary to past adverse perceptions, Prof Ncube said the manufacturing sector had re-emerged strongly with huge potential ahead.

“Contrary to earlier perceptions, the sector’s contribution has exceeded expectations, underscoring the tangible progress towards economic transformation that we are witnessing.

“The growth in manufacturing is a clear testament to the effectiveness of our policies aimed at industrial revitalisation, beneficiation and value addition,” said Prof Ncube.

Industry and Commerce Minister Mangaliso Ndlovu also hailed the prevailing stability as a game-changer for consumers and investors alike.

“In terms of what is happening to this economy, I think under the Second Republic we have had the longest stable spell that we have ever experienced,” he said.

Minister Ndlovu said the stability of the ZiG currency was deepening trust in the economy.

“There are people who have been telling me that they are looking for the ZiG because for the first time they know that they can keep their ZiG for months and it will still have the same buying power if not more,” he said.

Minister Ndlovu added that investor appetite had surged on the back of consistency in monetary and fiscal policy.

“We have seen high appetite for investment in the last 12 months. Of course, under the Second Republic we have posted record investments in the manufacturing sector,” he said. “Capacity utilisation will be a moving target because there is continuous expansion in capacity.”

Similarly, Prof Ncube said the development trajectory must remain inclusive, ensuring that no one and no place is left behind.

“Over the past years, underpinned by the National Development Strategy 1 (2021-2025), we have made strides towards revitalising our industrial base, promoting investment, enhancing ease of doing business and reducing the cost of doing business,” he said.

The minister said Zimbabwe would continue leveraging the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), which offers a gateway to a market of over 1,4 billion people with a combined nominal GDP of about US$3,4 trillion. Calling for closer collaboration, Prof Ncube said in this noble pursuit, partnerships remain vital.

“I call upon our development partners, captains of industry, academia, civil society and all stakeholders to collaborate in design and implementation of policies that foster innovation, competitiveness and economic diversification,” he added.

Prof Ncube further revealed that Government is carrying out a comprehensive review of levies, fees and charges to improve competitiveness.

“This includes systematically cutting levies, fees and charges across all sectors in order to encourage efficiency, productivity and growth.

“The goal is to cut red tape, eliminate overlapping charges and create a more enabling environment for investment and business expansion,” he said.

“To date, Government has streamlined levies, fees and charges in agriculture, tourism and transport sectors.”

The conference, hosted for the first time in Bulawayo under the theme: “Macroeconomic and Sectoral Policies for Broad-based Economic Transformation”, underscored the centrality of agriculture, mining and manufacturing in Zimbabwe’s economic transformation drive.

Researchers, academics, corporates, think tanks and development partners, have used the platform to pitch robust dialogue on shaping Zimbabwe’s economic trajectory in line with Vision 2030.

This comes as Government has mainstreamed knowledge management as a driver of informed policy dialogue and implementation, fostering innovative thinking, among researchers, policymakers, and private sector leaders to encourage evidence-based research on economic and policy issues and creating platforms for young researchers, the diaspora and private entities to share insights with policymakers.

ZEDCON continues to serve as a critical platform for thought leadership, policy exchange and recalibration of Zimbabwe’s development trajectory in line with Vision 2030.