Online Reporter
Business Reporter
ZIMBABWE’S economy may grow at 8,5 percent this year, higher than the initial 5 percent estimate for 2026, driven by mining, policy reforms and renewed global engagement and re-engagement.
This represents an even faster expansion than the 5 percent conservative forecast announced by Finance, Economic Development and Investment Promotion Minister Professor Mthuli Ncube in his 2026 National Budget presented in November last year.
The economy would also hit its highest expansion since 2011, when growth peaked at 14,6 percent.
The ministry’s permanent secretary Mr George Guvamatanga, revealed the higher growth estimate while addressing investors and mining executives at a Zimbabwe mining industry-focused breakfast meeting on the sidelines of Mining Indaba 2026 in Cape Town, South Africa, yesterday.
The outlook, he said, reflected continuously improving fundamentals and growing international confidence in Zimbabwe’s economic stabilisation efforts.
Zimbabwe’s economy continues to register strong growth after the 6,6 percent forecast expansion last year, a strong rebound from a 2 percent growth in 2024, which was weighed down by a devastating El Niño-induced drought.
“The economy is now expected to grow by a minimum of 8,5 percent in 2026,” Mr Guvamatanga said.
Following the recently issued statement by the International Monetary Fund, which confirmed that Zimbabwe has agreed with the IMF on a 10-month staff-monitored programme, the outlook has strengthened significantly.
Zimbabwe and the International Monetary Fund have reached a staff-level agreement on a new Staff-Monitored Programme (SMP), a step the authorities say would help entrench economic stability and support the country’s efforts to re-engage with international lenders.
“I would think that it will be in the 9 percent to 10 percent range, which is really a very strong growth trajectory, supported by the ease of doing business reforms and further recovery in agriculture and in mining,” he said.
The revised forecast places Zimbabwe among the faster-growing economies in the region, building on gains recorded since the economic reset launched in 2018.
“Since 2018, this performance represents a cumulative increase in GDP (Gross Domestic Product) of over 32 percent, surpassing the National Development Strategy-1 target of 5 percent annual growth,” Mr Guvamatanga said.
He said that the economy had shown resilience despite external shocks, including climate-related disruptions and global economic and political volatility, with the current policy framework focused on restoring confidence, predictability and policy credibility.
The mining sector and strong external performance have anchored the expansion. “Central to this outcome has been the resilience and expansion of the mining sector,” he said, pointing to both new investments and the expansion of existing operations.
Mining is one of Zimbabwe’s strategically key sectors, accounting for an estimated 14,5 percent of real GDP and over 70 percent of export earnings, according to the Ministry of Finance.
Zimbabwe’s mineral endowment spans more than 60 commercially exploitable minerals, including gold, platinum group metals, lithium, chrome, coal and nickel. However, Mr Guvamatanga stressed that geology alone was insufficient to attract long-term capital.
“We are aware that resource endowment alone will not attract investment,” he said. “Policy certainty, fiscal competitiveness and capital recovery assurance are decisive.”
Against this backdrop, the Government has deliberately structured its mining fiscal framework to support capital-intensive, long-life projects.
Zimbabwe’s mining tax architecture has been tailored to enhance project bankability and investment certainty, Mr Guvamatanga said, with incentives embedded in legislation rather than discretionary policy.
“Zimbabwe’s mining fiscal framework has been deliberately structured to support long-term capital-intensive development,” he said.
Key features include “full deductibility of mining capital expenditure, including exploration and mine development”, indefinite carry-forward of assessed mining losses, accelerated capital allowances and special mining lease arrangements for projects exceeding US$100 million, which carry a preferential 15 percent corporate income tax rate.
“These incentives apply equally to foreign and domestic investors and are embedded in legislation, providing certainty and enforceability,” he said.
Mr Guvamatanga also used the platform to address recent fiscal adjustments affecting the mining sector, emphasising the Government’s responsiveness to investor concerns.
“Investor confidence is built on trust, dialogue and policy consistency,” he said. Following consultations after the 2026 National Budget, the Government suspended proposals to limit the indefinite carry-forward of mining losses and withdrew plans to tie capital deductibility strictly to life-of-mine parameters.
“These refinements reaffirm the Government’s commitment to safeguarding project bankability while pursuing national development objectives,” he said.
On beneficiation, Mr Guvamatanga said fiscal measures were being applied selectively to encourage downstream investment without undermining mine viability.
In gold, higher royalties apply only when international prices exceed defined windfall thresholds. For lithium, export taxation has been aligned to processed outputs to support local value addition and integration into global battery supply chains.
Beyond fiscal tools, the Government is prioritising energy security and investment facilitation.
“We are prioritising expanded generation capacity, renewable energy investments and dedicated power solutions for mining operations,” he said, adding that the Zimbabwe Investment and Development Agency now provides a streamlined one-stop investment platform.
“Zimbabwe is not seeking speculative capital,” Mr Guvamatanga said. “We are seeking long-term, technically competent and well-capitalised investors committed to responsible and profitable mining.”
