Online Reporter
FOR 45 years, Zimbabwe’s agricultural fortunes have repeatedly been tested by one stubborn variable — the weather.
There have been seasons of abundance, years when the rains arrived late and others when they disappeared just when crops needed them most. Through it all, El Niño has repeatedly exposed the vulnerability of an agricultural sector historically dependent on rainfall.
Yet Zimbabwe’s agricultural story between 1980 and 2025 is not simply one of drought, crop losses and recovery. It is increasingly a story of lessons learnt, adaptation and a gradual shift towards building resilience before the next climatic shock arrives.
That journey is documented in Developments in Agriculture: 1980 to 2025, a publication by the Minister of Agriculture, Mechanisation and Water Resources Development, Hon Dr Anxious Jongwe Masuka, which brings together decades of agricultural data and analysis.
Published on the occasion of the National Heroes celebrations on August 10, 2026, the book looks beyond individual farming seasons to pose a bigger question: What has Zimbabwe learnt from 45 years of agricultural production, drought and recovery — and how can those lessons protect the next harvest?
With El Niño remaining a significant agricultural risk, that question has assumed renewed importance.
El Niño: An old adversary, new lessons
El Niño is not new to Zimbabwe.
The publication records nine El Niño and Super El Niño events since 1980, although their effects have differed considerably across seasons and geographical areas.
The 1986/87, 1991/92, 2002/03, 2006/07, 2014/15 and 2015/16 events were associated with varying degrees of drought and reduced crop yields.
But the powerful 1997/98 Super El Niño provides an important lesson in why seasonal forecasts must be interpreted carefully. Despite the severity of the phenomenon globally, Zimbabwe was spared some of the worst anticipated drought impacts, with timely localised rainfall allowing some areas to achieve near-average harvests.
The 2018/19 and 2023/24 episodes were similarly uneven, with some areas experiencing damaging dry spells while others received sufficient rainfall.
The historical record therefore carries an important message: El Niño signals heightened agricultural risk, but it does not mean that every district will experience exactly the same conditions.
What is increasingly concerning, however, is the frequency of climatic shocks.
According to the publication, droughts that occurred approximately every five to seven years in the 1980s are now occurring every three to four years. Shorter rainfall seasons, uneven rainfall distribution, rising temperatures and increasing pest and disease pressure are also changing the environment in which Zimbabwean farmers operate.
And the economic consequences can be severe.
An analysis contained in the publication puts the average reduction in maize production during selected El Niño years at 51 percent, while the average value of maize lost during an El Niño season is estimated at approximately US$325 million.
Behind those numbers are farmers, household incomes and national food supplies.
They also explain an important evolution in Zimbabwe’s drought response: preparedness increasingly has to begin before the seed enters the ground, rather than after the crop has failed.
Pfumvudza changes the conversation
At the centre of that transition is Pfumvudza/Intwasa.
Its principle is simple but increasingly important in an era of unpredictable rainfall: prepare early, concentrate available resources, conserve moisture and maximise production from the rainfall received.
Planting basins help capture and concentrate water around the crop, while mulch assists in conserving soil moisture. Early land preparation also positions farmers to take advantage of the first effective rains instead of beginning preparations after the season has already started.
The publication’s comparisons show Pfumvudza/Intwasa recording higher yields per hectare than conventional production. The same trend is reported for sorghum, demonstrating the potential of the approach to strengthen smallholder resilience, particularly in drier areas.
In an El Niño-prone environment, Pfumvudza therefore represents more than a method of planting.
It represents a change in thinking — from reacting to drought to managing climatic risk before it becomes a loss.
For farmers, maximising the Pfumvudza/Intwasa approach means conserving every possible drop of moisture, preparing plots ahead of the rains and ensuring that scarce inputs are applied efficiently.
It is, in practical terms, Early Warning, Early Action at farm level.
Building more than one line of defence
Pfumvudza alone, however, cannot insulate an entire agricultural sector from climate shocks.
Zimbabwe’s response has consequently expanded into complementary interventions that include irrigation development, traditional grains, mechanisation, strategic grain reserves and greater agro-ecological tailoring of agricultural production.
Traditional grains are particularly significant.
The report says sorghum production under the Second Republic increased by 150 percent compared with the breadbasket years, reflecting greater emphasis on climate-smart interventions and crops better suited to drier agro-ecological regions.
Irrigation provides another important buffer by reducing agriculture’s dependence on increasingly unpredictable summer rainfall.
The transformation of winter wheat illustrates what can be achieved when irrigation is combined with mechanisation, financing, electricity availability and coordinated production.
Wheat production reached approximately 640 000 tonnes in 2025, which the publication identifies as the highest output in Zimbabwe’s history.
Strategic grain reserves provide another layer of protection, allowing grain accumulated from productive seasons to help cushion the country when climatic shocks reduce output.
Taken together, these interventions illustrate one of the most important lessons to emerge from the past four decades:
There is no single answer to drought. Resilience has to be built across the entire food system.
The lesson of 45 years
And the challenge is unlikely to disappear.
The publication cites projections showing that, under a hot and dry future scenario, overall rain-fed crop losses could reach 17 percent by the 2040s, while rain-fed maize yield losses could reach 22 percent.
The southern Mzingwane catchment could face even greater pressure, with estimated maize yield losses reaching 34 percent under the same scenario.
Such projections make climate-proofing agriculture more than an agronomic consideration. It becomes an economic and national food-security imperative.
Yet the 1980–2025 story also demonstrates Zimbabwean agriculture’s capacity to adjust.
The publication records rural household food security improving from 44 percent in 2020 to 85 percent in 2025, while average rural household monthly income increased from US$33 to US$136 over the same period.
Hon Dr Masuka nevertheless cautions against complacency.
“Much has been accomplished, but much more needs to be done, so the momentum gathered must be accelerated,” he says.
Agriculture, he argues, remains one of the most cost-effective routes through which millions of Zimbabweans can participate in the country’s drive towards a prosperous and empowered upper-middle-income society by 2030.
That perhaps is the enduring message of Zimbabwe’s 45-year agricultural journey.
The country cannot prevent El Niño from developing thousands of kilometres away in the Pacific
Ocean. Neither can farmers command when, where or how much rain will fall.
What Zimbabwe can determine is how well it prepares.
For the farmer, that means preparing land early, maximising Pfumvudza/Intwasa, conserving moisture, selecting crops appropriate to local agro-ecological conditions and acting on seasonal information.
For the country, it means strengthening irrigation, strategic grain reserves, climate-smart agriculture, mechanisation, crop diversification and early-warning systems.
The history of El Niño has therefore left Zimbabwe with something more valuable than a record of difficult seasons.
It has left lessons.
Lessons about what happens when rain fails. Lessons about the cost of waiting. And, increasingly, lessons about the value of preparing before a warning becomes a crisis.
As Zimbabwe looks towards another agricultural season, 45 years of drought, recovery and adaptation point to a simple but increasingly consequential principle:
Early Warning. Early Action.
