Amid cold sheets, Byo must conduct own census

Limukani Ncube
YOU get an impression that when the smoke died down in Bulawayo with industries having their warehouses converted into churches, the heat also died down between the sheets in bedrooms the entire city.Men and women lost their jobs and equally lost interest in the God-given duty to multiply the human species, so it seems. What can you say when the population in the metropolitan province is not growing, and in fact, dwindling? What can you say when statistics show there are fewer married men in Bulawayo than in most parts of the country? What can you say when statistics show most men roaming the streets here are jobless?

The issue of closure of Bulawayo industries has been dealt with on countless occasions and government has said moves are underway to make sure that smoke finally comes out of our industries and Bulawayo becomes“kontuthu ziyathunqa” once more.

What has been of concern of late has not been what the government is doing to revive industries, but the hullabaloo that has been heard from the results of the 2012 national population census as released by the Zimbabwe National Statistics Agency (Zimstat).

The results show that, literally, when men stopped going to work, they also stopped their other duties at home with the population dropping from 676,000 in 2002 to 653,337 in 2012. The reasons for the drop  in numbers are varied, and can be attributed to a                   new form of migration — urban to rural — as opposed to the rural to urban migration of the past when people would come to town and cities to look for jobs.

According to the report, more people are now found in rural areas where they make a living from farming, thanks to the land reform exercise, than in towns and cities. About 67 percent of the entire population of Zimbabwe now lives in rural areas with 33 percent shared among the towns and cities dotted around the country. In fact the number of people moving to rural areas has been increasing over the years, with the 2002 census saying 64 percent of Zimbabweans were in rural areas.

The other reasons for change in figures for Bulawayo could be the mortality rate, migration to other towns and cities in the country as well as outside the country for the so-called greener pastures.

However, the debate has not been on why the numbers are dwindling. The source of debate has been that the Bulawayo City Council, supported by former mayors’ claims that the figures are not correct, insinuates that the figures were “doctored” so as to show fewer people in Bulawayo so that the city gets less resources from central government.

All we have been getting is ranting and raving from ordinary residents and the Mayor, Councillor Martin Moyo, but the council has not bothered to provide its own figures of the people who are in Bulawayo, or the number of households paying rates to say the least to form a basis of making a strong argument. It becomes foolhardy to argue with someone armed with statistics, when you have nothing contrary to put on the table.

This then leaves the Bulawayo City Council with no option but to conduct its own population census so that it approaches the relevant government departments armed with some figures of some sort, not arguments that could be easily dismissed as mere rhetoric.

The Bulawayo Progressive Residents Association (BPRA) has set the ball rolling in calling the council to invest in its own census for the purposes of developmental planning in the wake of the release of 2012 national census results.

“BPRA believes the BCC census could be combined with the ‘toilet census’ that the local authority intends to carry out this year. The association has in the past criticised the Zimbabwe National Statistics Agency (Zimstat) of deliberately under-counting people in the Bulawayo and Matabeleland regions with the aim of allocating less resources to the region.”

While the national census has taken on a political outlook, it would be pragmatic for BCC, as the tier of government closest to the residents of Bulawayo, to undertake its own census that would be used for the purposes of developmental planning, argues the residents body.

The census would provide useful data for use at the local level in terms of coming up with a development strategy for the city that covers issues like housing, health infrastructure and water provision. Population figures are the basis for development planning and therefore allocation of resources. They are also key in determination of the size of constituencies during delimitation of electoral boundaries.

Three former Bulawayo mayors have been quoted as saying the 2012 census results showing the city’s population in decline are suspicious, echoing the incumbent mayor who said he has “reservations” about the findings.

Zimstat said Bulawayo Province has the lowest population in the country. Bulawayo mayor, Clr Moyo, rejected the findings, saying the city’s population was above a million based on housing units and the average occupancy.

The city’s PR department went further, using the official Twitter account to claim that “it’s a ploy by the government to underfund our projects”.

Former Bulawayo mayor, Joshua Malinga said he estimates there are over two million people living in Bulawayo. Census results, he said, have a bearing on the “allocation of resources and political power” by central government.

“I agree with Clr Moyo and my thinking is that there are more than two million people in Bulawayo. There’s just something wrong with the figures. The reason being that we allow people from somewhere else to come and count us,” said Malinga, who is also a Zanu-PF politburo member.

“When I was mayor of Bulawayo, I once warned that this is a political issue that needs transparency. It’s the same issue that has divided Nigeria and I’m afraid the same thing will happen in this country.”

Malinga says a census must “always be treated with sensitivity”, adding: “You can’t count, collate information and code everything without involving the city council and the political leadership. People must understand the whole process, see how counting was done, information collated and codified… this information must be understood.

“People must understand that a census is an issue of national importance and interest, a sensitive issue about political power and resources allocation affecting even how many schools are built in an area.”

Bulawayo’s last executive mayor, Japhet Ndabeni-Ncube, said he has previously raised his concerns over what he sees as undercounting, and reveals that the 2012 figures are “worse”.

He believes the problem has also manifested in the Matabeleland South (683,893) and North (749,017) numbers.

“The statistics show that there’s a decrease in the population. Something is not right. I don’t want to criticise Zimstat because they are professionals, but we have a right to express our views so that they look into the issue.”

The former mayor says “the figures don’t seem to reflect the true picture on the ground”, adding: “In 2002, I raised the same concern and I thought they would come closer to the ground. Unfortunately, this year’s figures are even worse.”

The census, which put the national population at 13,061,239, was conducted during the power sharing government era and was overseen by the then Ministry of Finance under the MDC-T’s Tendai Biti.

The same census showed Harare with the highest population of 2,123,132 followed by Manicaland with 1,752,698, Midlands with 1,614,941 and Mashonaland West fourth with 1,501,656 people. Masvingo (1,485,090), Mashonaland East (1,344,955) and Mashonaland Central (1,152,520) followed closely behind.

Zimstat director general Mutasa Dzinotizei told this publication that he was surprised by the protests from Bulawayo. He insisted they used “scientifically agreed standards where every person in the country is enumerated”.

And a professional statistician, who requested not to be named, said there was no way Zimstat could “cook” figures as it would give the officials a tough time.

“The method used is structured in such a way that a lot of people have to be included in conspiring to come up with false figures,” he said.