Ashly Dhani
The 21st century pandemic has caused global uncertainty, leaving many in a quandary, pondering on how and when the lethal disease will resolve.
The coronavirus, also known as Covid-19, with origins in Wuhan, China, has led to adoption, on a global scale unseen before, of lockdowns.
From an epidemiological standpoint, the first 14 days of a lockdown are observed as the incubation period. The next seven days are added to ensure that residual infection dies out.
However, as Spain battles an upsurge in Covid-19 case morbidity and mortality, the lockdown initially declared on March 14, 2020, was further extended until after Easter.
On Thursday April 9, 2020, South Africa, the continent’s pandemic hotspot, announced a two-week extension to the initial 21-day lockdown.
Lockdowns are neither pleasant nor convenient since they come with curtailment of socio-economic activities.
But, in the wake of a global calamity, ignoring the benefits of 21-day quarantine can be detrimental to human populations.
Generally, Covid-19 symptoms appear between four and five days after exposure. Symptoms include cough, chest pains, fever, and fatigue.
According to Lindsay Wiley, a professor at America University’s Washington College of Law, “Fourteen days is not a made-up number. It is based on what we know so far about the disease.”
It is essential for health authorities to understand the incubation period. Incubation period is the time from exposure to development of symptoms.
Mathematically, it enables them to implement effective quarantine measures at projected peak periods.
The World Health Organisation reported an incubation period of between two and 10 days. Surprisingly, scientists have found Covid-19 incubation periods of 19, 24 and 27 days.
In a Press conference on February 10 2020, WHO said, “a very long incubation period could reflect double exposure.”
Researchers have found out that “about 97 percent of the people who get infected and develop symptoms will do so within 11 to 12 days, and about 99 percent will within 14 days.”
For Zimbabweans, anticipating and forecasting the period beyond a fortnight of official national quarantine is of paramount significance.
A surge in Covid-19 positive cases will signal calamity. Yet insignificant changes to the obtaining trend will imply containment of the disease.
The lapse of the 14-day window period brings uncertainty to society. It is effectively the difference between life and death.
Hereafter, the Government, essential services providers, and frontline health workers must be geared up to contain the ravaging pandemic.
Provision of personal protective equipment (PPEs) becomes top priority if we are to guarantee the safety of our resilient health workers.
PPEs are fundamental for infection control, a pre-condition in the management and care of contagious diseases.
Using the available resources, the Ministry of Health and Child Care should rigorously screen all symptomatic patients, and facilitate early detection of cases.
The Government must provide adequate and quality testing kits to ensure mass testing of suspected Covid-19 cases.
South Korea has managed to contain the disease by employing rigorous testing of Covid-19 cases, and decentralising vital health services.
However, provision of adequate Covid-19 testing kits is a costly exercise, hampering the fight against Covid-19 pandemic.
Despite expert recommendations for mass testing, many countries have focused on the inexpensive testing of symptomatic cases.
Contact tracing and isolation of all suspected cases must be done simultaneously to curb the rapid spread of the disease.
Environmental health practitioners must be capacitated to effectively carry out contact tracing. This must be complemented by a solid disease surveillance database.
Hand washing must not be a reactionary ritual, but a people’s habit. Citizens must continue practising hand hygiene during the course of the pandemic.
Beyond the fortnight quarantine rule, calamity lies ahead.
Allaying anxiety and removing stigma attached to viral infections promote early treatment seeking behaviour.
Psycho-social support services are important during this phase of uncertainty to ensure optimal mental health of the citizenry.
The media plays a critical role in disseminating accurate health information to facilitate positive behaviour change.
Forthwith, health promotion programmes must be tailor-made for marginalised communities during this phase of uncertainty.
Covid-19 is novel and complex. Authorities must adopt a holistic approach to contain the communicable disease.
As we anticipate danger post the fortnight quarantine rule, the general public must be psychologically prepared to overcome the challenges of Covid-19 disease.
No stone should be left unturned as we prepare for the worst, determined and resilient to counter the ravaging impact of the pandemic.
However, disease complications are inevitable. The Government must ensure availability of vital infrastructure at health institutions to reduce mortality.
Drug manufacturers must be capacitated to ensure availability of Covid-19 supportive treatment to those in greatest need.
Despite enduring decades of international isolation at the instigation of the West and its allies, Zimbabwe has repeatedly stated its preparedness to contain the pandemic.
International donor organisations and some developed nations have donated an assortment of vital anti Covid-19 resources to rescue Zimbabwe.
Although macro-economic conditions are fragile, the business community has responsibly joined the fight against the menace.
Unified efforts are coming to test, and more critically, the co-ordination and implementation of Covid-19 standard strategies.
Accountability and transparency is vital. Corruption must be nipped in the bud, lest all collective efforts will count for nothing.
In terms of peak numbers, the worst might be yet to come. All efforts, both individual and collective, are important as the fight against the pandemic intensifies.
According to epidemiologist, Saskia Popescu, “even if you don’t develop any coronavirus symptoms during the two-week quarantine period, you are not totally off the hook when it ends.”
Stay at home, do not mix with people outside your household, and frequently wash your hands with soap and water. When in public, maintain a distance of at least one metre from others.
By the grace of God, we shall overcome this pandemic together.
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Online Reporter