Chances of La Nina this year could bring relief to drought ravaged southern Africa

Sifelani Tsiko Environment & Innovations Editor

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and other global weather bureaus are getting early signals that a La Nina weather event may form in the Pacific Ocean later this year, something that could increase chances of wetter conditions in Zimbabwe and other countries in southern Africa during the 2024/25 cropping season.

A WMO update says there is about a 60 percent chance of El Niño persisting from March to May and a 80 percent chance of neutral conditions (neither El Niño or La Niña) in April to June.

La Nina events arise from cooler sea surface temperatures in the Pacific, while warmer sea surface temperatures result in an opposite weather phenomenon called El Nino, which resulted in a low rainfall and searing heatwaves in Zimbabwe and other countries.

Vast swathes of the region, including Zimbabwe, Angola, Botswana, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Mozambique and Namibia, are currently grappling with a prolonged dry spell due to the El Nino phenomenon experienced this season.

The El Nino weather pattern has affected agricultural production and other key sectors like tourism, industry and energy production.

Due to the weather phenomenon, Zimbabwe, Zambia and Malawi have all launched appeals for food aid to support millions of food insecure people.

Zimbabwe has removed Value Added Tax (VAT) on rice and potato seed and relaxed importation restrictions on maize, wheat and other basic food items as part of measures to mitigate the impact of the El Nino induced drought.
Met Department head of forecasting, Mr James Ngoma said rain season forecasts will become clearer after July.