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Beijing. — China’s imports rose the most in five months in December, indicating that domestic demand will support economic growth, as the government claimed the title of the world’s biggest trader of goods. Inbound shipments advanced 8,3 percent from a year earlier, the customs administration said last Friday in Beijing. Exports rose 4,3 percent, a pace that may be distorted by fake invoices. The trade surplus was US$25,6 billion.
Improving demand will help support expansion amid risks from rising domestic debt and the impact of President Xi Jinping’s broadest policy reforms since the 1990s. While China said it passed the US to become the top trading nation in 2013, the government highlighted challenges for exporters including gains in the yuan and increased labour costs.
“Domestic demand is not as soft as had been feared, and the Chinese economy — while decelerating — is unlikely to see a sharp slowdown,” said Dariusz Kowalczyk, senior economist and strategist at Credit Agricole CIB in Hong Kong.
At the same time, the latest figures “should be interpreted cautiously as they look much different after seasonal adjustment,” Kowalczyk said. On that basis, imports rose 4,3 percent from a year earlier and exports gained 3,3 percent, customs data show.
The full-year trade surplus was US$259,75 billion. That’s the widest since 2008 and the third-biggest on record, based on previously released data. Some analysts have said the surplus was inflated earlier in the year, with Bank of America Corp.’s Lu Ting pegging the discrepancy at more than US$50 billion for the January-April period.
The customs administration has no plans to revise 2013 trade data, Zheng Yuesheng, a spokesman, said at a Press briefing. For the full year, exports increased 7,9 percent to US$2,21 trillion and imports rose 7,3 percent to US$1,95 trillion, the customs administration said. Exceeding annual trade of US$4 trillion was a “historic moment”, Zheng said.
Fake invoices inflated 2013 export gains by about 2 percentage points, Louis Kuijs, chief China economist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc, said in a note.
The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0,7 percent amid concern new share offerings will divert funds.
US trade totalled US$3,53 trillion through November 2013, according to US government figures. US December trade figures, which haven’t been released yet, would need to be more than double a year earlier to catch China’s full-year total.
China already ranked number one in goods exports in 2012 and was the second-biggest importer behind the US, according to the World Trade Organisation’s annual report on international trade statistics. With US$2,08 trillion in inbound shipments through November, the US was poised to remain the world’s biggest importer in 2013.
China was fifth in exports of commercial services in 2012, behind the US, UK, Germany and France, the WTO said. China was number three in imports of services, behind the US and Germany.
In economic size, China remains second to the US, with gross domestic product of about US$8,2 trillion last year, about half that of the US
The yuan rose 2,9 percent against the dollar last year, the most of 11 Asian currencies tracked by Bloomberg.
Even with adjustments for previously inflated data, export growth won’t significantly quicken, because a stronger yuan will put pressure on China’s exporters and emerging markets that buy the nation’s goods could be hurt by the US’s tapering of monetary stimulus, Hong Kong-based Lu of Bank of America said in a note.
Analysts’ estimates for import gains in December ranged from 1,8 percent to 9 percent, with a median of 5 percent, following November’s increase of 5,3 percent. Exports were projected to rise 5 percent, and the trade surplus was forecast at US$32,15 billion, based on median estimates of economists. The trade excess in November was $33,8 billion, the largest in more than four years.
China’s carmakers exported 4,8 percent fewer vehicles in December compared with a year earlier, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers said in Beijing. Full-year shipments dropped 7,5 percent, the first decline in five years, due to unstable overseas demand and insufficient competitiveness, the association said.
Great Wall Motor Co., a sport-utility vehicle and pick-up truck manufacturer based in Baoding, Hebei province, reported a 23,2 percent drop in 2013 export volumes, according to a preliminary estimate released January 7.
Data showed imports of soybeans and natural rubber rose to a record last month, while full-year 2013 iron ore imports increased to a record.
China’s trade with Japan fell 5,1 percent in 2013, last Friday’s data showed, as tensions lingered over disputed islands in the East China Sea. Trade with the US rose 7,5 percent, while combined exports and imports with the European Union were up 2,1 percent. — Bloomberg.
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