Chisumbanje’s good restart

issues of ethanol, DPM Arthur Mutambara’s probe proved a good start.
Or is it restart, as a new era of ownership and operation is in the offing following the proposed conversion from the Build-Own-Transfer model to the Joint Venture between Government and the private investors.
And would this latter model not assuage the one prob­lem that had beset the project as political parties appar­ently fought over turf and the one investor was being lynched for alleged comfort with one of the said parties?
The socio-economic and political dynamics of Chisumbanje are quite interesting and chance on bring­ing boon or doom depending on how they are treated.
Arda chairman Basil Nyabadza gave an illuminating talk on Star FM a couple of weeks ago, days before the report of the inter-ministerial team. Granted, the man is a stakeholder in the project, as the face of one investor, Arda, while he, by his own admission comes from the same Manicaland province where Chisumbanje reposes.
And he would naturally want a success story for him­self, his province and the venture.
Yet there are compelling points that he made.
Nyabadza, highlighting the enormity of the project and how it lent, and learnt, from the big boys in the industry like Brazil, United States of America and Japan, said the project had a transformative potential for Zimbabwe.
There would be import substitution and the country would preserve its precious money committed to buying fossil fuel. It is said Zimbabwe could save an average US$20 million per month should it have mandatory blending, which money could be channelled to other uses. There would be jobs and electricity.
The country would nose into the automobile industry with the manufacture of ethanol-compatible cars. It will be a boon and a middle class would afford locally-pro­duced cars.
It is happening in other countries.
“Why should we buy used cars from other countries when we can manufacture our own?” he posed.
A plant in Mutare, all too ready for the big time, is lying in disuse. And Nyabadza is not lost to the importance of energy in the world. He related how the world is driven by energy and how countries with the same would pros­per. Rhodesia survived sanctions partly due to blending of the scarce petroleum that came its way with ethanol, and the model served the country well after the Ian Smith years, until nature contrived the severe 1992 drought. If blending could save and serve in war-time, it definitely can do the same, if not better in peace-time, what with advanced technology. Now, the stalling of the project pointed to the extension of economic sanctions peace-time Zimbabwe has endured from western countries.
How ironic!
There is promise, though.
DPM Mutambara’s team cited that according to the National Energy Policy Government targets to reach lev­els of mandatory blending of 20 percent by 2015.
A gradual adoption of mandatory blending from 5 percent, through 10 percent, right up to 20 percent has been proposed.
Says the report: “The logistics and infrastructure for all the blending levels must be developed quickly. Blending should be done from Msasa and at oil companies’ outlets until alternative sights (sic) are in place, in particular modifications at Feruka.
In fact, blending logistics must be rapidly developed for fuel coming through all the different entry points into the country, be it by road, rail or pipeline.”
There has to be much commitment by the various players, led by Government, to achieve the 2015 target so E20 will be the thing. Mind you, this is September 2012 and that calculates to a couple of years for the country to reach this paradigm. The country can achieve this only if it, most probably, is led by one party in Government not the current composite called inclusive Government.
(Or, we might as well say goodbye to the ethanol busi­ness if, for worse, the selfsame one party leading the Gov­ernment might find not so sexy the idea.)
The problems with Chisumbanje, which saw Govern­ment intervening after eight months of want of produc­tion and jobs, do not attest to the best efficiency. If the current recommendations are not acted upon the coun­try risks, as it is wont to, regressing.
Is it not said that Zimbabweans are good at talking and poor at implementation which has led to many “brilliant” blueprints gathering dust somewhere?
One could be gratified though that Professor Mutam­bara provides for the continuous monitoring and imple­mentation of the recommendations.
Give him that, even if one is inclined to cynically think the man is carving himself a forte beyond the inclusive Government where he might not be too useful.
It is to be prayed that there will be positive inertia and that the country will have mandatory blending of the highest possible and desirable configurations and all the benefits that accrue from such dispensation. There is something very ominous that Nyabadza sounded regard­ing the petroleum business in Zimbabwe today, vis a vis the ethanol imbroglio.
He said certain individuals were benefiting from both the petroleum trade per se and the transport business corollary. He revealed that there were some people, tak­ing advantage of the liberalisation of the fuel sector, were making a killing and would naturally be upset at the new dispensation of mandatory blending. Some are even fronts for foreign interests. Further to show their voracity, they would prefer to ship fuel by road when, for example, it is cheaper to use pipeline.
This is where the recommendation that “blending logistics must be rapidly developed for fuel coming through all the different entry points into the country, be it by road, rail or pipeline” will be a little tricky.
Will those in petro-trade easily give up?
Of course, they should, but it might have to take a lot of compulsion, principally via the enactment and enforce­ment of the relevant law. It might also be prudent, and indeed provident, in the same law, to recognise resistance to, bypassing and otherwise the defeat of the cause of blending as a form of economic sabotage warranting some strident punishment. That DPM Mutambara’s team recommends that Government “should direct car manu­facturers, assemblers, dealers and agencies to immedi­ately start importing vehicles which take ethanol blends” is in order save for the want of enforceable time-lines.
The same could be said of the recommendation that policies should be developed that encourage individuals to import vehicles which take ethanol blends.
If, as it rightly should, it is understood that Zimbabwe is in an economic warfare with forces that want to bog it down, including fighting the land reform of this agro-economy and the diamond the diamond godsend, Gov­ernment should simply step up the game. If it does its homework like ensuring, for example, that ethanol is of the highest acceptable quality and price, then our little personal discomfiture should take place secondary to the greater good of the nation.
Does the report not say, “This project is a national and strategic asset with a potentially huge impact on our economy, through radically changing our fuel econom­ics, power generation…multiple downstream industries, new dependent projects…and a potential car manufac­turing industry . . . ?”
Chisumbanje should be the beginning and Zimbabwe could tap into the vast potential of the whole south east­ern lowveld to feed into its ethanol industry.