malvernmugadzikwa
Hamond Motsi
THE 2023/2024 farming season in Southern Africa was a catastrophe, with farmers grappling with drought conditions that devastated crops and livestock.
This drought, driven by the El Niño phenomenon, caused below-average rainfall and hit countries like Zimbabwe, Zambia, Malawi, Namibia and Lesotho particularly hard, reducing crop production by as much as 50 percent.
Maize, a staple crop, suffered the most, while high livestock mortality rates resulted from water scarcity and depleted grazing lands.
The drought not only left these countries food-insecure, but also had a significant impact on their economies, as their agriculture sectors are substantial contributors to economic output.
In response, affected countries declared a state of disaster to seek international assistance and address growing food insecurity.
Despite the grim outcomes of the last season, farmers may have reasons to be optimistic this year.
Experts at the 29th Southern Africa Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF-29) held in Harare from August 26 to 28 forecast a transition from El Niño to La Niña conditions.
La Niña, which is the inverse version of El Niño, brings warmer-than-normal winters and elevated rains during summers, ultimately associating itself with normal to above-normal precipitation during the summer season.
The SARCOF forecast points towards normal to above-normal rainfall in the central parts of the region between October 2024 and March 2025, creating an opportunity for recovery in agriculture.
But between January 2025 and March 2025, a decline in rainfall is expected in regions such as the south-western parts of South Africa, north-western Angola, northern Zambia, northern Malawi and northern Mozambique.
Similar projections have also been made by the World Meteorological Organisation and other regional institutions such as the South African Weather Service and the Meteorological Services Department in Zimbabwe.
The anticipated rainfall is expected to positively boost Zimbabwe’s agriculture sector, where a significant proportion of farming is practised in drylands by smallholder growers, implying massive reliance on rains.
The early onset of and even distribution of rains in some parts of the country have already enabled land preparation.
This raises the potential for increased crop production.
If rainfall patterns remain favourable, the agriculture sector is likely to rebound, improving food security and boosting economic performance in 2025, not just for Zimbabwe but the broader Southern Africa region.
The Government, in collaboration with stakeholders in the sector, should prioritise improving preparedness for the approaching planting season to optimise the advantages of good rains, which typically occur between November and December for rain-fed crops.
For instance, regarding Pfumvudza/Intwasa, farmers should commence land preparation as they wait for the rains, including digging holes.
Moreover, extension workers should prioritise educating farmers about the projected favourable rains, as some may be reluctant to participate this season after suffering losses last year.
The forecast of favourable rains should motivate every farmer to intensify their efforts in preparation for the positive upcoming season.
Nevertheless, La Niña may also bring above-normal rains, which can potentially be disastrous for farming.
Excessive rains can impact agriculture mainly by destabilising soil-plant nutrition dynamics. They can reduce nutrient availability and accessibility, ultimately diminishing crop yields and threatening food security again.
Soil erosion, the most noticeable impact of excessive rains, washes away topsoil containing plant nutrients and organic matter.
Additionally, nutrients can leach to levels inaccessible for plant uptake in the soil.
In poorly drained soils, excessive rains cause saturation, leading to floods and waterlogging, thereby affecting crop growth.
Nutrients lost from agricultural fields enter water bodies like lakes, ponds and rivers, leading to eutrophication (the gradual increase in the concentration of phosphorus, nitrogen and other plant nutrients in an ageing aquatic ecosystem).
This process, typically driven by nitrogen, phosphorus and trace amounts of heavy metals, results in algal blooms, riverbank blockages, aquatic life fatalities and overall water quality deterioration, raising environmental and human health concerns.
To address these issues, farmers must implement prescribed measures to avoid risks related to high rainfall.
Amending soils with organic matter can strengthen soils, reducing physical disturbances, especially by erosion.
Organic matter also improves soil infiltration, preventing waterlogging and nutrient loss from leaching.
This can be managed directly through animal manure or crop residues, or indirectly via conservation practices such as crop rotation, cover cropping, multi-cropping and reduced tillage.
Contour management can effectively divert runoff water into suitable waterways.
Additionally, farmers should time fertiliser applications and chemical sprays properly to prevent losses from heavy rains.
In conclusion, the forthcoming agricultural season is projected to receive more favourable rains compared to the previous one.
Farmers and all stakeholders in this sector should capitalise on this opportunity through proper planning and preparedness to recover from the adversities of the preceding season. However, it is necessary to exercise caution regarding potential heavy rainfall, which can also be detrimental to crop production, by implementing appropriate practices at the commencement of the season.
This season is the time to make Zimbabwe’s agriculture great again.
Hamond Motsi is a PhD student in the Faculty of Agrisciences at Stellenbosch University in South Africa. Contact: [email protected]
Online Reporter