Editorial Comment: Myths could derail Covid-19 retreat

While the Omicron wave of Covid-19 has been retreating almost as fast as it exploded into life in Zimbabwe at the end of last month, we have absolutely no idea of how many people it will kill and a combination of myths and complacency could easily reignite the upward trajectory on the infection graph.

We all know what happened around this time last year when the second wave took hold in the festive season and destroyed illusions that Covid-19 had “almost disappeared”, and then we had the third wave, fuelled by the more vicious Delta variant in mid-year, but driven by our complacency.

At the end of last month, a couple of months of almost trivial daily infections opened the door to the full force of Omicron.

As the variant swept around the world several things became apparent. First, Omicron spreads faster than any other variant, and by fast we mean really fast.

In Zimbabwe the daily infection peak of 6 181 new cases seen on December 10 was almost double the 3 110 seen on July 14, and the peak rolling average of 4 580 new daily cases seen on December 14 was just about double the 2 355 peak average seen on July 15.

But it took just two weeks for the present wave to peak, while the third wave took more than six weeks to climb. This had the effect in the last wave of us seeing the death rate climbing relentlessly despite being a fortnight behind the infection rate, so a lot of people grew very concerned and took precautions early.

This time deaths were still almost trivial as daily infections climbed, and are only now starting to rise steadily upwards.

So we do not know when they are likely to peak although if, and that is something to be determined, there is roughly a fortnight between the infection peak and the death peak we could see that fatalities start falling later this week.

One scientific fact that has generated a lot of ill-informed nonsense is the fact that besides being far more infectious than the Delta variant, Omicron is, on average, less vicious. Statistical samples in large populations with most cases tested for variants suggests that Omicron is “up to” 70 percent less likely to lead to serious illness or death than Delta.

But people need to realise we are dealing with statistics, not you as an individual.

If you double or triple the rate of daily infection, but cut the average severity by two thirds or a bit more, you still get almost the same number of people in hospital and being tested in the morgue unless other factors come into play.

The biggest extra factor is, of course, vaccination. It has now been established that all vaccines work with Omicron as they worked with the original and the first fur variants of concern.

There had been worries that the vaccines used around the world might not work properly with Omicron because of the greater number of mutations, but fortunately this is not the case.

During the worst of the last wave less than 10 percent of Zimbabweans aged 16 and over had received their first shot, and just over six percent their second, and even then most of these shots were very recent as the supply chains were sorted out for the general population and the maximum levels of effectiveness were still building.

This time more than 40 percent of the 16s and over had received one short and more than 30 percent both and we know that helped.

Bulawayo has far higher vaccination rates than the rest of the country, with its only serious competitor being next door Matabeleland North, and especially Victoria Falls and the Hwange coal mining communities.

Bulawayo has more than a half of its 16s and over fully vaccinated and it and Matabeleland North close on 60 percent with one shot.

Despite having a population just under a third of that of Harare-Chitungwiza, but otherwise a very similar urban density and so similar risks, Bulawayo has seen infection rates and daily deaths at or below a fifth of those of the largest urban conurbation.

The only difference is that Bulawayo has more than 50 percent vaccination rate and Harare-Chitungwiza around 30 percent. That means a far lower fraction of people get ill or die in Bulawayo , when population sizes are taken into account.

While statistics are not detailed enough to prove other things, most of us when we look at our friends or relatives who have been infected, have noted that those who were vaccinated are far more likely to have had nothing worse than mild or moderate symptoms, while those fighting for breath generally come from the group who has put off vaccination.

One of the most dangerous myths circulating in Zimbabwe is that Omicron is mild and does not make you very ill or kill. Well there are people in intensive care and people who have buried relatives who know different.

It does and that has been found around the world, again most deaths among the unvaccinated. The other myth is that an Omicron infection protects you against all variants.

Well to a degree it will, but the World Health Organisation has found already that such infection protection is very short-lived with reinfection likely, and that Omicron’s protection is exceptionally short lived.

It is difficult to understand why there are swathes of people reluctant to seek vaccination. The unanimous advice from medical experts, especially those with high-end PhDs in public health and infectious virus illnesses is to “get vaccinated now”.

The resistance is driven by incorrect information from outside the public health and virology communities, and the mainstream medical community.

None of us would want to use a bridge designed by an amateur rather than a qualified and experienced civil engineer, yet we accept the word of medical illiterates over the unanimous findings and advice of those who actually know.

In parts of the world, mainly North America and Europe, there are political connotations. But it would be strange if Zimbabweans accepted the advice of people who tend to think black people are inherently inferior and should in any case be kept separate in church and State.

So marked is the political divide now in the US that Republican party voters are dying significantly faster than Democratic party voters.

Zimbabwe is one of the few African countries that has a good supply chain and good distribution, the almost 70 percent of over 16s not yet double jabbed should be in queues, grabbing their free shots.

We know it sharply reduces the risk of infection and if the virus strikes, it almost guarantees survival.