Online Reporter
Professor Desmond Manatsa
AS Zimbabwe transitions from the current extraordinary winter chill into the incipient warmth of spring, we stand at our most pivotal moment.
Across the nation, from the communal lands to the commercial farms, all thoughts are turning to the sky.
This seasonal pivot is more than a temperature change; it is the nation awaiting the rains that will dictate our economic fortunes, our food security and the livelihoods of millions.
But the reliable rhythms our parents and grandparents knew have changed. Climate change has broken the old certainties, and simply hoping for a good season is no longer a strategy; it is a high-stakes gamble our nation cannot afford to lose.
To face this future, we must move beyond hope and embrace intelligent preparation.
This requires a sophisticated, integrated approach that weaves together the strengths of modern science, the strategic insight of new planning tools and the deep-rooted wisdom of our traditions.
True resilience in the 21st century lies not in choosing between a satellite image and the wisdom of a village elder, but in being smart enough to use both.
Success in the coming season and in the years that follow, will depend on how well we master the use of three critical sources of knowledge: the official seasonal forecast, Zimbabwe’s newly updated Agro-Ecological Regions Map, and the timeless wisdom of our Indigenous Knowledge Systems (IKS).
The foundational piece of our planning puzzle will be delivered in the coming weeks.
Climate scientists from across the SADC region will convene for the Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum (Sarcof) next month.
Analysing the Indian and Pacific Ocean temperatures, atmospheric pressure models and global wind patterns, they will produce the 2025/2026 seasonal rainfall forecast.
This outlook, once meticulously downscaled for our specific context by Zimbabwe’s own Meteorological Services Department (MSD), is the primary, non-negotiable guide for all short-term preparations.
This scientific forecast is the strategic compass for the season, providing a probabilistic outlook on whether to expect normal, above-normal, or below-normal rainfall.
This guidance is nuanced; “above-normal” might promise a bumper harvest, but it also signals a higher risk of flooding, water-logging of fields, and the potential for outbreaks of crop diseases and pests that thrive in wet conditions.
A “below-normal” forecast triggers alarms for water conservation and strategic resource allocation.
The advisories from the MSD translate this complex science into actionable intelligence, empowering everyone, from a Cabinet Minister to a communal farmer, to make informed decisions.
For more than 60 years, our agricultural planning was anchored to an agro-ecological map developed by Vincent and Thomas in 1962. It was a masterpiece for its time, but it described a climactic era that has passed.
Today, rising global temperatures have translated into a new reality for our region: hotter days, more erratic rainfall, and more frequent mid-season dry spells.
In a landmark move to address this, Zimbabwe has officially adopted a new, updated Agro-Ecological Regions Map, arguably the most significant strategic tool placed in our hands in a generation.
This new map redraws our country based on six decades of climate data. The implications are profound.
Many areas once considered reliable prime cropping zones now fall into hotter, drier categories where traditional maize farming is increasingly unsustainable.
Region V has been separated into Va and Vb, where the latter no longer economically supports any form of rainfed agriculture.
Thus, the first critical action for every farmer, landowner and extension officer is to locate their area on this new map and internalise its findings.
This new reality requires a new strategy. Imagine Mai Tawanda, a farmer in Nhema, near Shurugwi. She remembers her father consistently harvesting tonnes of maize from their fields.
Yet for years, her yields have been declining. The new map provides the answer: her land, once a solid Region III, now exhibits the characteristics of a drier Region IV. This is her new strategic baseline.
When the SARCOF forecast is released, she will fuse it with this knowledge. If it predicts a dry season, she will not gamble her savings on a whole field of maize.
Instead, she will dedicate her prime plots to sorghum, expand her flock of hardy goats and ensure her on-farm water harvesting systems are ready.
This integrated approach, using the map for long-term strategy and the forecast for short-term tactics, transforms farming from a lottery into a resilient enterprise.
Expertise from local extension officers who have been trained to offer the required local assistance in this regard is available.
While the map gives us the terrain and the forecast provides the weather, Indigenous Knowledge Systems (IKS) offer the indispensable, hyper-local focus.
This is not mythology; it is a multi-generational database of environmental observation.
When an elder notes the sparse flowering of a mutondo tree or the unusually high construction of a termite mound, they are reading signals from an ecosystem they have understood their entire lives.
Think of it this way: the map is your strategic road atlas, the forecast is the live traffic report, but IKS is the trusted local guide sitting beside you, pointing out the faded road signs and hidden dangers that only someone who walks the path every day can know.
Science gives us the probability; IKS provides the ground truth. It is a vital tool that deserves our respect and careful consideration.
This integrated approach to climate is essential for all facets of society. The new map is also a guide to our health and safety.
The hotter, drier zones are where heat stress will have the most significant impact on outdoor workers, older people and children.
They are also the areas where vegetation will become tinder-dry, creating a higher danger of destructive veld fires that threaten not only grazing land but also our national biodiversity.
This knowledge allows the Ministry of Health and Child Care (MoHCC) and the
o target their resources effectively
Water management, too, must be guided by this new reality, prioritising infrastructure and conservation efforts in the regions now classified as most vulnerable.
The time for relying on luck is over. The challenge of a changing climate is immense, but we are not helpless.
By skillfully combining the long-term guidance of our new map, the seasonal direction from official forecasts and the fine-tuned wisdom of our local knowledge, we can face the future with confidence.
This is not merely about avoiding disaster; it is about building a more intelligent, resilient and prosperous Zimbabwe for generations to come.
*Professor Desmond Manatsa (PhD, Climate Science) is a climate science expert and the president of the African Alliance of Disaster Research Institutes (Aadri), which is affiliated with Kyoto University, Japan-based Global Alliance of Disaster Research Institutes (Gadri).
He is currently the Executive Dean in the Faculty of Science and Engineering at Bindura University of Science Education in Zimbabwe.
Bongani Ndlovu