as investors fear a backlash in the currency pair, pushing option traders to increase bets on other asset classes like gold and equities.
Last week and coming into this week, the euro against its market peers, held marginal gains buoyed by the European ministers’ meeting to discuss another Greek bailout. Those marginal trades have been so thin with some investors deciding to sell-off euro as the banking and sovereign crisis has become so intertwined.
The euro’s gains were moderate against the dollar ahead of the Greek discussion bailout meeting.
The euro pared gains against most of its peers was up by 0,1 percent, trading at US$1,2712 to the dollar and 0,2 percent up against the yen trading at 101,04 buoyed by the weak GDP numbers from Japan.
The yen was 0,3 percent weaker against the dollar on the GDP figures show that Japanese economy shrank by 0,9 percent in October on financial turmoil in Europe.
Growth in Japan will remain low as traders are already projecting a weaker than expected growth till the end of the year.
The Bank of Japan will likely stimulate their economy and this is projected to weaken yen further and reduce yield on their assets.
Corporate Japan has been armed by a stronger yen for a while now as they keep buying growth elsewhere. Yen will remain a haven currency as long as geopolitical issues like the war in Syria escalates with no resolution.
In London, huge swings in the GBP-USD currency pair have been experienced as the trendline in this currency pair signals pound weakness.
The sterling pound pared losses against the euro and dollar as investors look forward to the meetings in Washington and Europe on debt gridlocks. Financial markets expect a resolution on Greek bailout and US fiscal cliff deadlock. The pound declined by 0,6 percent to the dollar trading at US$1,5872 and was little changed against the euro trading at 80,07 pence per euro.
The Canadian dollar’s trendline was a steep one and that showed after it failed to hold gains against the dollar retracing back to US$0,9995.
The Canadian dollar declined on the US fiscal cliff deadlock and crude oil decline with crude weakness tempering around with the Cad strength after touching parity to the dollar.
South African Markets
The rand was retesting 8,7540 in earlier trade before that break to the upside to strengthen around 8,7474 against the dollar. The rand remains more exposed to global trends and is currently trading on such trends with Europe being its biggest risk factor. What could drive rand to better levels around the 8,50 region is the issue of government volatility in developed markets on the debt issues, pushing investors and traders to bet on emerging markets.
Sovereign debt in Europe and the US have been the wild card and will likely push investors to protect their portfolios from financial turmoil.
The interest rate factor on the rand will push the unit to attract hot money, meaning yields on the assets will be better on the geographical pattern but currently, the rand will hold bids around 8,75-8,78 against the dollar. At the moment its yields versus growth and emerging markets will likely offer that but the global slowdown will likely stall any wild rallies.
Commodity markets
Government volatility and uncertainty has pushed gold to break to the upside.
Demand for gold is compatible with current political and financial turmoil as bullion jumped by 1,2 percent to trade at US$1 728,55 an ounce.
Despite gold’s recent slump by 2,6 percent in the past weeks on a stronger dollar, gold still remains the story and acts as a sense of security.
Crude oil bids remained subdued trading at US$85,58 a barrel as supply exceeds demand with Iraq oil finding its way into Chinese and Indian markets.
My chart of the day; Greece needs €5 billion to stay out of default, a positive could actually push euro to US$1,28 and could likely struggle to crack that US$1,31 ahead of that US fiscal cliff decision.
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