Chronicle EditorEvelene Taadira Herald Reporter
Zimbabwe will receive normal to above normal rainfall for the 2013/2014 farming season, signalling a good farming season, but spelling disaster for the whole of southern Africa which is likely to experience floods due to the heavy rains, regional climate experts said yesterday.
The climate experts issued the forecast at the end of their Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF) in Harare, where they also revealed that the whole region would receive normal to above normal rains.
The experts, from all the 14 Sadc countries, are expected to break down the forecast to be relevant to their individual countries when they return home.
“The seasonal forecast has been issued for the region and indications are that there is going to be a normal to above normal season for Zimbabwe which means that it is going to be a good rainy season,” Acting Meteorological Services director Mr Elliot Bungare said.
“This particular forecast does not indicate the date of the onset of the rainfall season, but the national meteorological office will issue 10-day forecasts from sometime in September or October advising on that.”
Mr Bangure said a national forecast determining what would happen in Zimbabwe’s three main farming regions would be released next week.
Meteorologists at the meeting said the normal rains were likely to cause flooding in low-lying areas and called for disaster management experts to communicate effectively to the affected areas when the need arose. Agritex Agronomist Ms Tamburiro Pasipanodya said despite the signal of good rains, it was still too early to advise farmers on the seed varieties they needed to use for their specific areas.
“Our messages will only be after we get the 10-day updates that will be given by the met office as part of the downscaling of the regional forecast and when we are aware of when the rains will start,” she said.
The regional experts said the forecast did not mean an even distribution of rain within the season. They said the region was likely to receive normal to above-normal rainfall for the period October to December, but the south-western parts of Angola, coastal areas of Namibia, west coastal South Africa and northernmost Democratic Republic of Congo were more likely to receive normal to below-normal rainfall.
“In the November-December 2013 – January 2014 period, the bulk of the Sadc region is likely to receive normal to above-normal rainfall, while the greater part of the DRC, northernmost and south-western Angola and western fringes of Namibia and South Africa are likely to receive normal to below-normal rainfall,” the experts said.
“The bulk of both Sadc and island states of Madagascar and Mauritius are likely to receive normal to above normal rainfall during December 2013 to February 2014. However, south-western Angola, most of Namibia, western half of Botswana, most of central and western parts of South Africa and Lesotho are likely to receive above-normal to normal rainfall, while the eastern half of Tanzania is likely to receive normal to below-normal rainfall.
The experts said for the period January to March 2014, the bulk of Sadc was expected to receive normal to above-normal rainfall.
However, the eastern coast of northern Mozambique through central parts of the region extending to the south western central parts of the region were likely to receive above-normal to normal rainfall.
The Sadc region has been in the past hit by climate change and was experiencing an unpredictable rain pattern that sometimes resulted in drought being experienced in some areas despite forecasts of good rains.
Online Reporter