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Nevada. — US historian who has accurately predicted every election since 1984 believes Donald Trump will lose the 2020 race.
Professor Allan Lichtman has accurately predicted the outcome of every US presidential election since 1984, using “13 keys” that primarily assess the performance of the party in power.
“They look at the fundamentals of what drive US presidential elections — not the polls, not the punditry, not the speeches, the debates, the ads, the fundraising, the dirty tricks of the campaign. Those trivia don’t matter at all,” Lichtman explains.
If the polls are anything to go by, Trump is trailing behind his Democratic rival Joe Biden – at times by double-digit numbers with less than a month to go before the elections.
What matters are things such as the strength of the economy and whether there is social unrest, said Lichtman, a history professor at American University in Washington.
“My final prediction is that Donald Trump will become the first sitting president since George HW Bush in 1992 to lose re-election,” he says.
While Trump’s chances still looked promising until the end of 2019, according to Lichtman’s model, the economic plunge amid the coronavirus pandemic and nationwide racial justice protests in 2020 may seal his fate. — Al Jazeera
Online Reporter