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Vinesh Parmar : Correspondent
Led by Jacob Zuma, the ANC will be fending off stiff competition from the Democratic Alliance (DA), South Africa’s main opposition party, under stewardship of leader Mmusi Maimane — contesting his first elections. Former ANC Youth leader and firebrand politician Julius Malema’s Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) will contest their inaugural local elections. Analysts see this as an opportunity for them to assert their status as potential challengers to the top two.Three metros
The eight main municipalities – known as ‘metros’ — hold 40 percent of the electorate. Johannesburg, the nation’s financial capital; Tshwane — home of the capital Pretoria; and Nelson Mandela Bay, which harbours the country’s sixth biggest city — Port Elizabeth, will be tightly contested.
The City of Tshwane will be the closest, according to polls released by eNCA, with the ANC expected to take 47 percent of the vote followed by the DA on 43 percent. Johannesburg is similarly tight with 5 percent separating the two. Nelson Mandela Bay tells a different story with polls suggesting the municipality could join Cape Town as a future DA stronghold.
EFF’s first local elections
Former ANC loyalist Julius Malema will lead his EFF party to their first local elections. While they are not expected to threaten ANC hegemony this time, they have struck a chord with working class voters.
The EFF’s far-left rhetoric will see them win votes in urban areas but amass more support in rural areas. Contesting the national vote in 2014, they became the official opposition in the North West as well as Limpopo where they are expected to do well again. Polls suggest they will attract 9 percent of the national vote.
Significance
Local elections do not normally garner high turnouts but with a quarter of South Africans out of work and growth expected to stall at 0 percent this year, questions have been asked of the ANC. Jacob Zuma’s credibility has been damaged after it was revealed taxpayers’ money was spent on his Nkandla private residence and he failed to uphold the constitution by ignoring a state order to repay some of the funds.
When the position of finance minister temporarily became a merry-go-round following two changes in a week, Zuma’s leadership was brought into question by members of his own party.
These municipal elections are viewed as a chance for the DA to capitalise on Zuma’s missteps and for the EFF to gather momentum before the 2019 general elections.
2011 local elections brought 57,6 percent of the registered voters to the polls. That is expected to be dwarfed by this year’s turnout.
Security
Political killings have marred previous elections and have dogged this year’s contest. Police Minister Nathi Nhleko established a task force to investigate these murders.
Thirteen ANC councillors running in KwaZulu-Natal were shot dead in the build up to polling. It remains unclear as to whether these deaths were caused from inter- or intra-party fighting.
A police force of 60 000 has been deployed nationwide.
Youth Vote
More than a third of 15-35-year-olds remain unemployed in South Africa while only 33 percent of 18-and 19-year-olds are registered voters. Considerably less are expected to place a vote.
That number remains higher among 20 to 29-year-olds, but research from the Institute for Security Studies states 65 percent are registered to vote in that age group.
Protests including the #FeesMustFall movement, calling for more affordable tertiary education, have been popular among the youth but analysts believe such demonstrations will not result in widespread participation at the polls. — New African Magazine.
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