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Business Reporter
Zimbabwe’s agriculture sector is forecast to register strong positive performance during the 2022–2023 cropping season, backed by an anticipated above-average, says advisory group IH Securities.
The country’s agriculture sector accounts for around 17 percent of the overall gross domestic product (GDP).
It also provides 60 percent of the raw materials required by the industrial sector for its manufacturing operations while it employs between 60 and 70 percent of the country’s population.
For the months of October through December 2022, most of Zimbabwe is predicted to experience normal to below-average rainfall, with the exception of the southern regions, where normal to above-normal rains are anticipated.
According to the Meteorological Services Department, it is very likely that the entire nation will get normal to above-average rainfall from November 2022 to January 2023 (NDJ).
For the months of December to February (DJF) and January to March (JFM) in 2023, Zimbabwe’s western and southern regions are expected to experience above-average to average rainfall, while the majority of the nation’s northern and eastern provinces are forecast to experience normal to above-average precipitation.
Equities research and advisory firm, IH Securities, said in its latest Zimbabwe Agriculture Sector report, that Zimbabwe uses mostly rain-fed agriculture hence its agricultural economy was highly dependent on the weather patterns.
“We anticipate the agriculture sector to register positive performance owing to forecasted above-normal rainfall in the coming 2022/23 farming season,” it said.
The last season, 2021–2022, was characterised by sparse rains in certain regions of the nation, and late-onset in others, and an irregularly distributed rainfall pattern both in geography and time, which led to a reduced agriculture yield.
“While rainfall has been affecting agriculture production in the country, there seem to be other factors as well considering maize yield per hectare for Zimbabwe is significantly lower compared to peers within the same climatic region,” IH said.
Zimbabwe’s average national maize production is about 0,7 tonnes per hectare, significantly less than the 1,8 tons per hectare average for the rest of Africa. Namibia, Malawi, and Mozambique produce an average of 1,2t of maize per hectare, Tanzania approximately 1,3t, Zambia about 2,5t, and South Africa about 5,3t.
“We believe the government will continue implementing initiatives that reduce the cost of farming so as to encourage higher production,” stated IH Securities.
“Assuming this plays out, we forecast increased agriculture production and potentially reduced cereal import bill,” it added.
The Government has set a target to achieve a US$8,2 billion agriculture economy by 2025 as the sector has been buoyed by successful agricultural seasons.
President Mnangagwa in August 2020 launched the Agriculture and Food Systems Transformation Strategy which seeks to achieve the targeted growth by 2025.
The strategy is a composite plan of action drawn from the Agriculture Recovery and Livestock Growth Plans.
Before the onset of rains, the Government distributes seed and other agricultural services through programmes such as Pfumvudza/Intwasa conservation scheme, Presidential Input Scheme, National Enhanced Crop Productivity Scheme (known better as Command Agriculture), more irrigation, Livestock Growth Plan and the farm mechanization programme, which all contribute to the better harvests.
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