daniel chigunwe
Tapiwanashe Mangwiro
Zimbabwe is grappling with a significant grain shortfall, with experts warning the situation may be far worse than what is being officially projected.
According to the Ministry of Lands, Agriculture, Fisheries, Water and Rural Development, the nation faces a grain shortfall of between 34 percent and 46 percent when including stocks held by the government.
Excluding the strategic grain reserve (SGR) stocks, the deficit could soar as high as 65 percent.
This alarming scenario arises from erratic and insufficient rainfall, compounded by prolonged dry and hot spells that have severely impacted maize yields this 2023/2024 farming season.
Dr Precious Maponga, a renowned agricultural analyst, emphasised the magnitude of the problem, saying: “The Ministry of Agriculture estimated maize production at 634 699 tonnes, representing a 72 percent decrease from the production in the 2022/2023 season, illustrating the devastating effects of the El Nino weather phenomenon.”
The Ministry of Lands, Agriculture, Fisheries, Water and Rural Development’s estimates reveal that 908 004 hectares, or 53 percent of the total maize-cultivated area of 1,8 million hectares, were written off due to adverse weather conditions. Such a drastic reduction in maize production has raised concerns about food security in a country where maize is a staple food.
However, experts such as Dr Maponga and economist Gladys Shumbambiri-Mutsopotsi, argue that the ministry’s projections are overly optimistic and fail to capture the full extent of the crisis.
One critical oversight, they asserted, is the ministry’s reliance on consumption rates that do not align with the actual scenario in Zimbabwe.
“The ministry said they planned with a human consumption computed from a rate of 120kg per person per year, whereas Zimbabwe’s actual consumption is around 92,4kg per person per year,” said Dr. Maponga.
“This discrepancy alone creates a significant gap in their projections.”
Furthermore, the ministry’s focus on commercial livestock feed needs, without considering the shortfall of rural livestock feed, exacerbates the situation.
The lack of grazing land has led to a severe depletion of home-based stock, which rural communities rely on for sustenance.
This depletion means that many who could not deliver to the Grain Marketing Board (GMB) are now contributing to an even larger deficit than the ministry’s projections.
Dr Maponga elaborated on this issue arguing: “By not factoring in the depletion of home-based stock, the ministry has significantly underestimated the grain shortfall. Rural livestock feed shortages are a critical component of the overall food security challenge that has been overlooked.”
Economist Gladys Shumbambiri-Mutsopotsi echoed these concerns, highlighting the broader implications of these miscalculations.
“The ministry’s projections do not fully capture the severity of the situation,” she said.
“Ignoring the realities of rural livestock feed shortages and home-based stock depletion paints an incomplete picture. The actual deficit is likely much higher, putting more pressure on an already strained food supply system.”
The combination of inaccurate consumption rates and the neglect of rural agricultural dynamics suggests that Zimbabwe is heading towards a more severe food crisis than currently anticipated by the government.
Such a situation calls for urgent policy adjustments and more accurate data collection to better address the country’s food security needs.
Shumbambiri-Mutsopotsi urged the government to adopt a more holistic approach to agricultural planning.
“We need a comprehensive strategy that includes both commercial and rural agricultural sectors.
Effective policy measures should consider the nuanced needs of rural communities and ensure that all aspects of food production and consumption are accurately represented,” she added.
Bongani Ndlovu