Online ReporterWITH seven candidates vying to succeed Thomas Bach, tomorrow’s International Olympic Committee presidential election in Greece promises to be one of the most uncertain in decades.
High stakes, high expectations and the future of the Olympic Games are on the line in a contest that will keep the sporting world on tenterhooks.
The IOC’s voting structure, a peculiar system with rules dating back more than 100 years, adds another layer of mystery to a process that generally leaves little room for surprises.
The IOC’s voting system bears some similarities to the Roman Catholic Apostolic Church’s papal election process, known as a conclave.
Both systems are designed to be highly confidential and secretive, increasing suspense, speculation and behind-the-scenes negotiations in a discreet and closed environment.
Since 1925, with the election of Count Henri de Baillet-Latour (Belgium), who succeeded Pierre de Coubertin after the latter’s death, candidates have gone through a series of successive rounds until one receives an absolute majority (more than half of the total votes) of the IOC members.
This process, which takes place behind closed doors and requires members to leave their electronic devices outside, is notoriously opaque.
In each round, the candidate with the least support is eliminated, and in the event of a tie, an intermediate vote decides the future of the candidates.
The results of the other candidates are kept secret until the winner is declared, adding an element of uncertainty that could last until the sixth round this Thursday.
The rounds continue until one candidate has more than half the votes.
Until then, the candidate with the least support will be eliminated, with a second round of voting in the event of a tie. President Bach will announce the name of the eliminated candidate to the membership, without revealing the results of his rivals, which will not be known until the winner is declared.
In other words, between each round, only the last-placed candidate is known (and therefore eliminated), but the order or number of votes received by the surviving candidates remains undisclosed.
This leads to a high level of speculation and the possibility of votes changing from one round to the next.
In practice, IOC presidential elections have not gone beyond the second round in recent years. In 2013, Germany’s Thomas Bach was elected at the Buenos Aires Assembly with only a second round of voting, despite there being five candidates.
He was then re-elected almost unanimously, with 93 votes in favour and one against.
However, the current race, with seven candidates, could become one of the longest in history.
The opening ceremony, scheduled for yesterday at the International Olympic Academy in Ancient Olympia, took place just hours before the IOC Executive Board meets to prepare the final decisions and reports.
The actual voting will then take place on tomorrow.
The voting system excludes IOC members from the same country as a candidate. There are currently 109 active members of the IOC, but neither the President of the organisation (except in the case of a tie) nor members from the same country as a candidate can vote, unless that candidate has already been eliminated.
For example, if a candidate belongs to more than one country, members from those countries cannot vote while that candidate remains in the race.
In the first round, this means that fewer than 100 members would take part in the vote.
This number will increase as candidates are eliminated, with members from the countries of eliminated candidates being able to vote.
The IOC, known for its diversity of members — including athletes, national Olympic committee leaders and representatives of international federations — has a voting system as fragmented as its interests. In this context, signals of support are difficult to interpret and candidates must be extremely careful with any gestures of sympathy, as confidentiality rules are strict.
Sebastian Coe, a favourite of some, has always insisted that he “never met an IOC member who didn’t vote for London” in the 2012 election, even though London’s victory over Paris was so close that it was decided in the final round by 54 votes to 50.
The transition from one round to the next, with no discussion allowed and no knowledge of the results – or even the order of the remaining candidates – adds to the drama, which is more akin to a Hollywood thriller than a modern sports federation election.
This makes the transfer of votes as crucial as it is unpredictable.
This dynamic reflects how alliances and votes in the IOC can change in the blink of an eye, adding even more uncertainty to an election that could go into a sixth round.
This election will be historic not only for the number and diversity of candidates.
The winner tomorrow will take office on 24 June 2025 for an initial term until 2033, with the possibility of re-election.
Although presidents typically face little competition for re-election once in office, they must stand for re-election. This means that the winner could continue beyond that date.
The IOC has set an age limit of 70 for presidents, with the possibility of extending this by a maximum of four years in exceptional cases.
In this respect, Sebastian Coe is the oldest candidate, which means that if he wins, his term would be shorter.
Born on 29 September 1956, he would be 74 in 2030 (using the maximum exception). Meanwhile, Juan Antonio Samaranch Jr (born 1 November 1959) and Morinari Watanabe (born 21 February 1959), who will be 65 and 66 respectively at the time of the election, can only run for a full term until 2033.
On the other hand, the only female candidate, Kirsty Coventry of Zimbabwe, born in 1983, could remain an IOC member until she is 70, which would be in 2053.
She could also take advantage of an exception in the rules to extend her term until 2057.
With these dynamics in mind, this Thursday’s IOC presidential election is shaping up to be one of the most hotly contested and unpredictable in recent times.
The voting rules, the national factor, the diversity and number of candidates and the evolving alliances will all play a key role in determining the future leader of Olympic sport. — insidethegames.com/Sports Reporter
