Andrew
Suren Naidoo
With Covid-19 resulting in a 22 percent slide in international tourist numbers for the first quarter of 2020, the crisis could result in a much more dire plunge of 60 to 80 percent this year.
This is according to the latest World Tourism Barometer report published on Thursday by the Madrid-based UN World Tourism Organisation (UNWTO).
The report presents three possible scenarios, but paradoxically notes that these scenarios should not be “interpreted” as forecasts by the organisation.
“Prospects for the year have been downgraded several times since the Covid-19 outbreak and uncertainty continues to dominate.
Current scenarios point to possible declines in (international tourist) arrivals of 58 percent to 78 percent for the year,” UNWTO says in a statement on the report.
The report reveals that the double-digit decrease in first-quarter international tourist arrivals is due to a significant decline in March.
The report shows that the “Asia and Pacific” region took the worst knock in terms of first-quarter international tourist arrivals, with a 35 percent decline.
Europe was the second-worst affected with a 19 percent decline, followed by the Americas, down 15 percent. Africa, the second-fastest growing region in terms of international tourism last year, declined by 13 percent.
The release of the report follows a statement by the UNWTO last week, noting that the Covid-19 pandemic has seen virtually “all destinations worldwide” introducing restrictions on travel.
Below are the three possible scenarios for international tourist arrivals in 2020 outlined in the report, based on international borders’ gradual opening and travel restrictions easing by the following dates:
◆ Scenario 1: down 58 percent – early July
◆ Scenario 2: down 70 percent – early September
◆ Scenario 3: down 78 percent – early December.
UNWTO said under these scenarios, the impact of the loss of demand in international travel could translate into:
◆ Loss of 850 million to 1,1 billion international tourists
◆ Loss of US$910 billion to US$1,2 trillion in export revenues from tourism
◆ 100 million to 120 million direct tourism jobs at risk.
Based on tourism industry experts surveyed, the organisation notes that a recovery in global tourism is largely anticipated in 2021.
“Domestic demand is expected to recover faster than international demand. The majority (of those surveyed) expect to see signs of recovery by the final quarter of 2020, but mostly in 2021,” UNWTO says.
“Based on previous crises, leisure travel is expected to recover quicker, particularly travel for visiting friends and relatives, than business travel. Sentiments regarding the recovery of international travel is more positive in Africa and the Middle East with most experts foreseeing recovery in 2020,” it adds. — moneyweb.co.za
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