‘Israel not winning in Gaza’

BRUSSELS. – When one looks at the Israel of today, and the one they thought they knew about when they were growing up, a fundamental transformation has taken place, signalling that things are no longer what they used to be.

It was an Israeli state that many believed was superior to the rest. A state thought of as moral in human, political, social, military, social and economic terms, until it started committing brutal crimes against humanity in Gaza.

Israel is incapable of domineering in the Middle-East region. Today it cannot defeat Hamas resistance fighters in the Gaza Strip, it cannot countenance the Hezbollah in Lebanon and cannot defeat the Houthis in Yemen.

The depreciation of its name, status and capability on the international stage emanates from the structural decay that is happening in the heart of its biggest financial, political and military backer, the US.

How the US has lost the moral ground to lecture other nations about “democratic values and human rights” is no longer anything to consider following how it is aiding Israeli atrocities in Gaza.

It was long back that when states wanted to do something that they asked: “What will Washington say?” Today they also ask: “What does Russia, China and Iran say?”

It is under these developments that the world is witnessing the West supporting Israel carry out unforgivable war crimes coupled with genocidal elements against Palestinians in Gaza.

While at it, there is statistical evidence indicating that in the West, ordinary people are not happy with the ongoing slaughter of Palestinians by the Israeli apartheid state.

In recent polls inside the United States, it is truly remarkable how 56 percent of those surveyed, especially Democrats, believe that Israel is engaged in genocide. There is a recent poll which revealed that 56 percent of all Democrats think that Israel is committing genocide.

Another poll revealed that 57 percent of those pledging to vote for President Joe Biden in the November elections think that Israel is committing genocide. Only 27 percent are not sure while 15 percent do not believe that Israel is committing genocide.

These numbers have consequences for both Israel and the US, as the former now stands as the biggest loser. This is a sign of big trouble.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is not a man gifted with political wisdom. On June 20, Israeli Defence Force (IDF) spokesman Daniel Hagari made a confession that contradicted his premier’s goals in Gaza.

“This business of destroying Hamas, making Hamas disappear, it is simply throwing sand in the eyes of the public. Hamas is an idea, Hamas is a party. It is rooted in the hearts of the people. Anyone who thinks we can eliminate Hamas is wrong,” Hagari told Israeli’s Channel 13 news in an interview.

It was a mistake for the Netanyahu led government to put back forces in Gaza, following their withdrawal in 2005 by then Prime Minister Ariel Sharon. He pulled out because Gaza is a hornet’s nest.

The Israelis are now trapped in that enclave, they have no way of getting out at the moment and have no solution to the problem they have created by worsening conditions and making the territory unlivable. So the Israelis are in trouble; they are stuck in Gaza and they have no solution to what is happening.

Secondly, the Israelis are set to lose in Gaza because of how they imagine deterrence. In Israeli military philosophy, they believe that deterrence is won through or depends on escalation dominance. Meaning, if Israel is attacked, they will attack the opponent back harder than they were initially attacked. In the end, Israel would expect to dominate from that.

But the last time Israel maintained that escalation dominance was in 2006 against Hezbollah on its northern border with Lebanon. From Israel’s point of view, they have to make it clear to all their neighbours that if they attack, Israel will attack them harder.

But today it is now clear that the Israeli occupying force no longer has that escalation dominance vis-a-vis Iran or vis-a-vis Hezbollah, and it explains why they cannot shut down the conflict with Hezbollah on their northern border. Their deterrence has been badly weakened.

Today Hezbollah has over 150 000 rockets and missiles, and it is expected that those numbers are set to increase with time. As Israel is attacking Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hezbollah is responding. It means Israel is now limited in what they can do and showing that their Iron Dome in the long term will cease to be useful or be seen as a formidable defensive system.

Also, Iran’s Operation True Promise conducted on April 14 to retaliate against Israel’s attack on Iran’s Consulate in Syria on April 1 reveals how much power Israel has lost in the Middle-East. – Belgian Think Tank