Online Reporter
Martin Kadzere
ZIMBABWE’S mineral export sector experienced a significant recovery in the second half of 2025, effectively reversing severe supply-side constraints and depressed prices that plagued the first six months.
The initial difficulties that faced the mining sector, which accounts for about 75 percent of the country’s total foreign currency earnings, threatened to have a severe adverse impact on the national current account balance.
The resurgence, propelled by a sharp rebound in key commodity prices, has now positioned the country to achieve its ambitious US$3,2 billion export target for this year.
Figures from the Minerals and Marketing Corporation of Zimbabwe, the State-owned agency responsible for marketing all minerals except gold and silver, show that in the first nine months of the year, export volume rose by 45 percent above the target, reaching 3,84 million tonnes.
In monetary terms, non-gold and silver exports totalled US$2,6 billion, a 0,7 percent increase compared to the same period in 2024, erasing the revenue deficit caused by the first-half headwinds.
The export performance was temporarily constrained by two significant domestic disruptions. Firstly, Mimosa suspended its exports between February and mid-May, pending the resolution of a tax exemption issue related to a 15 percent beneficiated material tax applicable to Zimplats.
Simultaneously, Bikita Minerals halted exports of its lithium petalite concentrate from January to June due to a slump in international prices.
Compounding these issues, the diamond segment continued to struggle under the dual pressure of subdued global prices and increasing competition from lab-grown diamonds, which severely dampened revenue growth.
The tide began to turn towards the close of the third quarter, providing a lifeline to the economy due to the recovery across the commodities that constitute the bulk of Zimbabwe’s minerals.
Prices of platinum group metals (PGMs) firmed by an outstanding 54,5 percent.
This was followed by significant gains in industrial metals, with ferrochrome prices rising by 24 percent and chrome by 22 percent.
Even the struggling lithium market saw a notable improvement of 7,54 percent.
The price surge acted as a powerful revenue accelerator, compensating for the value lost during the earlier production and export halts.
The resumption of PGM exports from Mimosa in May allowed the sector to capitalise immediately on the rising price trajectory, ensuring that the first-half policy bottleneck did not translate into an almost inevitable revenue slump.
“In a nutshell, the third quarter reflected strong operational momentum across key mineral segments,” MMCZ general manager Dr Nomsa Moyo said during the corporation’s annual general meeting last week.
“The corporation remains on course to deliver positive full-year results and to drive beneficiation-led growth consistent with the National Development Strategy 2 and Vision 2030.”
While sales of PGMs concentrate saw a 57 percent slump in volumes and a 58 percent drop in export revenue, the decline was more than offset by high-value matte exports.
A total of 27 806 tonnes of PGM matte was sold, generating US$1,05 billion.
This accounted for a 50 percent surge in PGM earnings from the US$702 million recorded in the comparable period of 2024. The export revenue from the matte represents about 40 percent of total non-gold and silver sales.
According to analysts, the platinum price is expected to remain bullish in the fourth quarter of 2025, driven by tight supply and steady demand from the automotive and jewellery sectors.
“We expect platinum prices to stay bullish in the fourth quarter of 2025, supported by ongoing market deficits driven by tight supply and steady, if not increasing, demand,” reads part of the latest economic research report by Maxiwuantus Capital Investments and Advisory.
Responding to the bullish outlook, Zimplats has resumed its US$1,8 billion expansion, boosting smelting and refining capacity.
Additionally, the company has invested in a fleet upgrade to increase production.
The spodumene segment saw strong volume growth but faced headwinds from lower global prices.
Export volumes increased by 27 percent, reaching one million tonnes sold, up from 784 746 tonnes in 2024. Despite the higher tonnage, the total export value declined by 11 percent, to US$386,9 million.
Exports of high carbon ferrochrome increased moderately in both volume and value.
A total of 328 442 tonnes was exported, a 21 percent increase in volume compared to 271 150 tonnes in 2024. In value terms, exports rose by a modest eight percent, from US$251,6 million to US$272,81 million in 2025.
Various coke products, including peas and nuts, recorded solid growth, driven by stable demand from regional steel markets.
Exports rose by 15 percent to 764 868 tonnes. The increase in volume translated to a 12 percent rise in export earnings, which climbed from US$127,1 million in 2024 to US$142,6 million in 2025.
Analysts described the swift recovery from challenges in the first six months as a major economic lifeline.
“The ability to pivot from a challenging first half to now being positioned to hit the US$3,2 billion target is a major lifeline for Zimbabwe’s mineral export performance,” a Harare-based financial analyst said.
